Fed Decision in June?

Economy Economic Policy Monthly Open Ends Jun 17, 2026, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
No change
99.3%
$0.993
25 bps decrease
0.5%
$0.005
25 bps increase
0.3%
$0.003
50+ bps decrease
0.2%
$0.002
50+ bps increase
0.1%
$0.001
Volume$72.41M Liquidity$5.86M Open Interest$9.74M Last updated5 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 8, 2026 7:57 pm.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 8, 2026, 11:37 UTC

Market-implied thesis

The market is pricing the June FOMC as an almost procedural hold, implying recent data has not forced a near-term policy pivot.

Because settlement keys off the upper bound of the target range, the claim is specifically about the announced FOMC target range, not Fed rhetoric or dot-plot tone.

Strong signal 82% CatalystJune FOMC decision RiskPolicy surprise

What could reprice it

The next repricing window is the final pre-meeting macro data and the June FOMC statement itself, where any move would settle the market.

Inflation, labor, and financial-stability signals matter only insofar as they change expectations before the target-range announcement.

Strong signal 76% CatalystJune FOMC statement RiskData shock

Where the market may be weak

Despite large headline depth, near-certain pricing can mask asymmetric order-book fragility; tiny alternative prices may not reflect robust disagreement.

Multi-outcome penny pricing can exaggerate precision when most participation clusters in the dominant no-change leg.

Mixed signal 58% RiskThin tails

Counter-signal

The main challenge to the hold view is that policy decisions are discrete: one abrupt inflation or credit event could make a small move more plausible.

Low-priced tails are not impossible outcomes; they may reflect limited time and base-case consensus rather than full immunity to shocks.

Counterweight 52% CatalystLate macro data RiskBinary shock

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Platform
Category
Economy Economic Policy
Close date
June 17, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Settlement source
Federalreserve
Market rules summary
Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules