Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets

Markets

Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick

With a millennial running mate, the former president now has a 72% chance of retaking the White House, traders on the crypto-based prediction market are signaling.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: (L-R) Tucker Carlson, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump,  Republican Vice Presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

News Analysis

U.S. Secret Service Chief Probably Won't Be Fired, Polymarket Bets Signal

The shooting at Trump's rally created severe concerns with the Secret Service's planning. Plus: Another all-time high for Trump's odds of victory; bettors think BTC will continue green streak until end of week.

LAUREL, MARYLAND (May 10, 2024) Director of the United States Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, speaks during the Secret Service Wall of Honor Ceremony at the James J. Rowley Training Center in Laurel, Maryland. (DHS photo by Tia Dufour)

Markets

Trump's Odds of Victory Hit All-Time High on Polymarket After Shooting

The former president, who was injured at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, now has a 70% chance of retaking the White House, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market. Trump-themed Polifi tokens and crypto broadly also rose.

BUTLER, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 13: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage by U.S. Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet during a rally on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania. Butler County district attorney Richard Goldinger said the shooter is dead after injuring former U.S. President Donald Trump, killing one audience member and injuring another in the shooting. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Markets

Biden Overtakes VP Harris as Likeliest Dem Nominee on Polymarket During President's Press Conference (Update)

The president said he plans to stay in the race but "it's important that I allay fears."

The first portrait of Joe Biden as president of the United States, 2021. (The White House)

Markets

Crypto-Friendly Sen. JD Vance's Odds as Trump VP Pick Double on Polymarket

Traders on the crypto-based prediction market now see a 29% chance that the Ohio Republican will be former President Trump’s running mate, up from 14% a week ago.

Sen. JD Vance, right, with former U.S. President Donald Trump (Drew Angerer/Getty images)

News Analysis

Prediction Markets and Polls Both Got the French Election Wrong

Plus: Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Biden's insistence he's staying in the U.S. presidential race; will ETH fall to $2,630?

PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 07: People are seen celebrating on the statue of Marianne on the Place de la Republique to celebrate after the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties including the far-left wing party, La France Insoumise came in first on July 07, 2024 in Paris, France. The National Rally party was expected to have a strong showing in the second round of France's legislative election, which was called by the French president last month after his party performed poorly in the European election, but first projections have shown an unexpected lead for French left wing alliance New Popular Front. (Photo by Remon Haazen/Getty Images)

Markets

Biden's Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview

The president's chances of reelection languished at 11% and his probability of dropping out lingered around 64%, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform.

MADISON, WISONSIN - JULY 05: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by ABC, U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with 'This Week' anchor George Stephanopoulos on July 05, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. The president sat down with Stephanopoulos while on the campaign trail in Wisconsin, a few days after a debate with former President Donald Trump. (Photo by ABC via Getty Images)

Markets

Kamala Harris' Odds of Winning Democratic Nomination Surge on Polymarket

Supporters are calling on the vice president to step up following boss Biden's doddering debate debacle.

COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND - JUNE 24: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on reproductive rights at Ritchie Coliseum on the campus of the University of Maryland on June 24, 2024 in College Park, Maryland. Harris is speaking on the two year anniversary of the Dobbs decision, the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and struck down federal abortion protections. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

News Analysis

UPDATE: Polymarket Logs First $100M Month as Election Drama Heats Up

President Biden's blunders during last week's debate are the latest factor driving volume on the crypto-based prediction market.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 27: U.S. President Joe Biden participates in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. President Biden and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump are facing off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)