Prediction Markets
The 5-cent contract that debunked a wartime death conspiracy
When social media declared Netanyahu dead, crypto prediction markets priced it at 5%. The money was right — and Washington wants to shut it down.
Arizona Attorney General files criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi
Kris Mayes filed 20 criminal counts against the prediction market operator, escalating a multi-state legal clash over sports and election predictions markets.
U.S. Democrats target government officials gaming prediction markets on war action
Potential indicators of prior-knowledge bets on U.S. military action spurred Democrats from the Senate and House of Representatives to introduce a new bill.
Argentina joins growing list of countries blocking Polymarket access
The ruling directs internet providers to block access to the site, and Apple and Google to remove or restrict Polymarket's mobile apps.
AI agents are quietly rewriting prediction market trading
Valory co-founder David Minarsch says autonomous agents running on the Olas protocol are giving retail traders a 24/7, strategy-driven edge on platforms like Polymarket.
Prediction markets get tailored U.S. guidance from former foe CFTC
The agency that once fought the events contracts platforms in court has now issued a new policy stance and is proposing permanent rules for oversight.
Senate Democrats push prediction market limits, including banning bets on war, death
One Senate Democrat's bill would write the prohibition into federal law even as the CFTC shifts toward a more permissive stance on event contracts.
Polymarket and Palantir team to protect integrity of sports betting as prediction markets face key moment
The new monitoring platform aims to detect suspicious trading as prediction markets face scrutiny over insider information.
CFTC chair highlights wide crypto agenda, including rules on DeFi, prediction markets
Commodity Futures Trading Commission chief Michael Selig updated his progress on guidance for DeFi developers, crypto derivatives and prediction markets.
Kalshi, Polymarket seeking $20 billion valuations in fundraising talks: WSJ
Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.
