Prediction Markets

Latest Prediction Markets news and analysis from CoinDesk, the leader in crypto journalism. Read in-depth coverage, expert insights, and price updates.

Policy

Kalshi Lists Long-Sought Election Contracts After Beating CFTC in Court

Contracts on which party will control the Senate and House went live Thursday shortly after a federal judge rejected the regulator's last-minute bid to block them.

By Cheyenne LigonSep 12, 2024

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 10: Diners watch as Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, and Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, debate for the first time during the presidential election campaign on September 10, 2024 at the Bar Tabac in New York City. After earning the Democratic Party nomination following President Joe Biden's decision to leave the race, Harris faced off with Trump in what may be the only debate of the 2024 race for the White House. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)

News Analysis

U.S. Election Betting: What's at Stake in Final (?) CFTC-Kalshi Showdown

Here's how to listen to Thursday's hearing in the closely watched federal court case over political prediction markets, and why it matters.

By Marc HochsteinSep 12, 2024

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 01: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam testifies about the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange company FTX before the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on December 01, 2022 in Washington, DC. In his first public comments since his business collapsed, Sam Bankman-Fried told the New York Times Wednesday that management and accounting failures were the reason for the collapse of his $32 billion company, which has sparked civil and criminal investigations. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Markets

Trump-Harris Debate: Polymarket Shows Slim Odds of Crypto Mention

Traders see only a 17% chance that Donald Trump will say "crypto" or "bitcoin" and just 13% for Kamala Harris.

By Marc HochsteinSep 10, 2024

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 09: Final preparations are made in the spin room prior to the ABC News Presidential Debate on September 09, 2024 at the Convention Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump will face off in their first debate tomorrow evening at the Constitution Center. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Policy

Kalshi's U.S. Election Markets Delayed Until Friday at Earliest

The judge in the prediction market's court case against the CFTC has called a hearing Thursday over the regulator's motion for a two-week delay.

By Marc HochsteinSep 9, 2024

GREENSBURG, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 21: Supporters of former President Donald Trump volunteer at a Republican Party booth at the the Westmoreland Fair, handing out lawn signs and registering voters, August 21, 2024 in rural Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is deeply divided politically, with the urban centers at either end of the state supporting the Democratic Party, and large sections of the rural communities enthusiastic for a second Donald Trump victory.(Photo by Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images)

News Analysis

Kamala Harris Will 'Win' First Debate With Trump, Polymarket Traders Are Betting

Also, there are now prediction market contracts about other prediction market contracts.

By Sam ReynoldsSep 9, 2024

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 02: Flanked by labor union leaders, Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to union workers during a campaign event on September 02, 2024 at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Michigan. Harris is scheduled to host another event in Pennsylvania later in the day. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Policy

U.S. Election Betting Delay Would Be 'Devastating' to Kalshi, Firm Says

The prediction market site "has staked its future on ... these markets," it told a court, pushing back against the CFTC's motion for a two-week wait.

By Marc HochsteinSep 9, 2024

Policy

CFTC Pleads With Judge to Block Kalshi Election Contracts for 14 Days

The agency says it can't make "an informed decision" about whether to appeal the judge's decision in Kalshi's favor until it knows her as-yet-unpublished rationale.

By Marc HochsteinSep 7, 2024

DENVER, COLORADO - MARCH 5: An election judge holds "I Voted" stickers while collecting drive-thru ballots on March 5, 2024 outside the Highland Recreation Center in Denver, Colorado. 15 States and one U.S. Territory hold their primary elections on Super Tuesday, awarding more delegates than any other day in the presidential nominating calendar. (Photo by Marc Piscotty/Getty Images)

Policy

Kalshi Cleared to Offer Congressional Prediction Markets in Victory Against CFTC

With two months to go before the election, the U.S.-regulated platform may now get a sliver of the 2024 political betting bonanza that's been dominated by crypto-based rival Polymarket.

By Marc HochsteinSep 6, 2024

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MAY 21: A 'Wait Here To Vote' sign is seen in a polling location as cvoters check in to cast ballots on May 21, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Among the races on the ballot in Fulton County are Scott McAfee, the Fulton County Superior Court Judge overseeing former president Donald Trump’s election interference criminal trial, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who is prosecuting the case. (Photo by Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)

Finance

Can Prediction Market Boom Continue After Election? This Crypto Team Has a Plan

Hedgehog Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain, wants to do for prediction markets what Pump.fun did for meme coins: Let anyone roll their own.

By Danny NelsonAug 29, 2024