Prediction Markets
UPDATE: Polymarket Says It's 'Conclusive' Barron Trump Was Involved in $DJT
Nearly all UMA token holders voted that Donald Trump's son Barron was not likely involved in the DJT meme coin. Polymarket says UMA got it wrong.
Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Lose Presidency, Prediction Market Signals
Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the "preponderance of evidence" shows Barron Trump's involvement.
Trump and Biden Likely Won't Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says
Meanwhile, there's a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper The Guardian will correct an article unflattering to prediction markets.
Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.
With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market's traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicate.
Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets
Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.
Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote
Plus: how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF?
Will RFK Jr. Debate Trump or Biden? Probably Not, Prediction Market Says
Plus: Which cat-themed memecoin will hit $1 billion first?
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding well over $70 million.
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election.
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. derivatives regulator approved a proposed rule that punctuates a long-standing legal dispute between the agency and predictive markets platforms.
