Prediction Markets
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding well over $70 million.
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election.
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. derivatives regulator approved a proposed rule that punctuates a long-standing legal dispute between the agency and predictive markets platforms.
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it's already illegal in most U.S. states.
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don't think Taylor Swift will break her record.
Free Money? Polymarket Bet Pays 8.7% if China Doesn't Invade Taiwan
Betting against an invasion on the prediction market may yield almost 7x as much as Taiwan government bonds. Plus: Mideast turmoil barely changes U.S. presidential odds.
Which Crypto Projects Will Airdrop Next? Prediction Markets Are Placing Bets
Eigenlayer has a 66% chance of sending users free tokens by June 30, the odds on Polymarket signal. Plus: Kalshi lands a big Wall Street account.
Who Will Trump Pick for Veep? Polymarket Gives Tim Scott Best Odds: Prediction Markets
Plus: Free money? "Democrat wins New York" contract trades at 90 cents on the dollar.
How to Design Better On-Chain Governance
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.
