Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets

Markets

Robinhood sees surge in bitcoin, gold prediction markets as traders move beyond sports

The company's head of futures and prediction markets said bitcoin, gold and oil contracts are among its fastest-growing prediction markets.

CoinDesk

Policy

Kalshi CEO says state-led oversight of U.S. prediction markets would push them out

CEO Tarek Mansour said he feels "pretty good" about the pending outcome of the current legal fight over who has the right to regulate prediction markets.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour at DC Fintech Week in Washington (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

Everyone wants SCOTUS to take up prediction markets: State of Crypto

The U.S. Supreme Court hasn't yet indicated whether it will take up cases surrounding prediction markets, but there are now several amicus briefs, an interim final rule and a rule proposal.

U.S. Capitol Building (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

U.S. CFTC moves to fold event contracts into swaps regulations as legal fight rages

The derivatives regulator is proposing a formal rule to include certain contracts traded on platforms like Kalshi's as swaps that require the agency's oversight.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

NFL joins pushback against prediction markets as U.S. Supreme Court asked to act

In opposition to federal oversight of the prediction markets, the National Football League has sided with states, Gary Gensler and one of the authors of the relevant law.

Patriots by Getty

Policy

U.S. CFTC seeks event contract definitions that may defy states' gambling claims

As it battles with states over prediction markets, the CFTC sent two related rules on swaps definitions for White House review.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

Another appeals court rules against prediction market provider Kalshi, says sports contracts are subject to state regulations

A Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled that prediction markets' sports-related events contracts are not swaps, and therefore aren't subject to federal regulatory oversight.

Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

U.S. regulator warns about cheating risks in 'mention markets' on prediction platforms

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a new advisory to flag the unique dangers of markets based on individuals' behavior.

CFTC HQ

Markets

Bitcoin, ether perpetual volumes on Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade, data shows

CoinDesk found one $5,499 trade size accounting for 57% of sampled ether-perpetual volume, while recurring $2,500 and $5,000 trade sizes made up 54% of sampled bitcoin-perpetual volume.

A person holding a phone displaying the Kalshi app. (Getty)

Policy

Clarity Act odds surge on prediction markets, but crypto bill still faces long road

Kalshi and Polymarket bettors sharply raised the chances of U.S. crypto market structure legislation advancing, with Tuesday's Senate vote the next test.

Polymarket Clarity Act contract (Polymarket)