Prediction Markets
Gemini eyes prediction market challenge to Kalshi, Polymarket, secures derivatives license; shares surge
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss' crypto exchange now holds licenses allowing it to expand into regulated derivatives and prediction markets, the fastest-growing sectors in crypto.
XO Market bets on user-generated prediction markets to rival Polymarket and Kalshi
Backed by 20VC, Picus Capital and Coinbase Ventures; XO lets users create and profit from their own prediction markets, and plans to rollout a new vault product to democratize market making.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could be its prediction market weapon, Arthur Hayes says
HIP-4 could become a dominant prediction-market venue because Hyperliquid users can get economic exposure to platform usage through HYPE, unlike users of Polymarket or Kalshi.
Hyperliquid is preparing to take on Polymarket with a new way to trade real-world events
Hyperliquid is gearing up to challenge Polymarket with a zero-fee entry for event betting as the $63 billion prediction market sector continues to explode.
Wall Street is launching the first ever prediction market ETFs for U.S. elections
SEC-regulated funds use swaps tied to binary-event contracts and aim to expand access to election trading through retail brokerage accounts.
Robinhood's crypto revenue tanks 47%, gap filled by prediction markets
Robinhood missed earnings after crypto trading revenue fell 47% to $134 million in Q1. But event contracts surged 320% to $147 million as users traded a record 8.8 billion prediction market contracts. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily."
A tiny group is winning on Polymarket as under 1% of wallets take half the profits
After research showed a small minority moves prices, new data suggests an even smaller group captures roughly half of all gains.
CFTC sues Wisconsin in agency's legal campaign defending prediction markets authority
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission added Wisconsin to the list of states it's sued over event-contract jurisdiction, most recently New York.
Polymarket reportedly seeking CFTC approval to reopen main exchange to U.S. traders
If approved, the move would help Polymarket compete with Kalshi in the U.S., and bring more event-trading activity under CFTC regulatory oversight.
Only 3% of traders drive prediction markets' accuracy, not the crowd, study finds
Researchers show market accuracy comes from a tiny group of informed traders, not broad participation.
