Prediction Markets
Asia Morning Briefing: Even Prediction Markets Didn’t See Bitcoin’s Sell-Off Coming
A fast reset in downside odds mirrors QCP’s warning of flat-footed pro desks, with Glassnode highlighting oversold momentum and moderating ETF outflows.
Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms
Polymarket traders see a 96% chance the record-long shutdown ends by mid-November, as the Senate passes a deal and pressure mounts on House Republicans to act.
Gemini Prepares to Offer Prediction Market Contracts: Bloomberg
The exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss has discussed unveiling products in this area as soon as possible, according to a report on Tuesday.
Analysis: Coinbase's Armstrong Made Prediction Markets Look 'Fun.' Bill Ackman Made Them Look Real
A Coinbase CEO prank resolved one market with a single sentence. Ackman’s warning about “rigged odds” in a $22 million Polymarket election shows the opposite: it now takes institutional-scale money to move prices even 10%.
Analysis: Prediction Market Bettors Miscalculated Dutch Election Results
Both Polymarket and Kalshi traders ignored late polls showing D66 gaining ground, keeping Geert Wilders’ PVV priced as a sure thing until exit polls forced a repricing that erased millions in misplaced bets.
Blockchain-Based Polymarket Eyes U.S. Comeback by November: BBG
Polymarket previously announced it would launch a token and had acquired a CFTC-registered entity.
Trump Media Taps Crypto.com to Launch Prediction Markets on Truth Social
Truth Predict will let users bet on elections, Fed moves and more via a CFTC-registered exchange, making Truth Social the first social platform with native prediction markets.
Polymarket Seeks Investment at Valuation of $12B-$15B: Bloomberg
That level would mark a more than 10-fold increase since June, when Polymarket raised $200 million at a $1 billion valuation.
Jupiter DEX Launches Kalshi-Powered Prediction Market for F1 Mexico Grand Prix Winner
The platform, powered by Kalshi, allows users to speculate on the race outcome, with initial trading limits set to ensure stability.
Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation, Expands Prediction Markets to 140 Countries: NYT
The funding round was led by major investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, CapitalG and Coinbase Ventures.
