Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets

Policy

U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets

Companies such as PredictIt and Kalshi would get "regulatory clarity" under rule in coming months, according to the chairman of the derivatives regulator.

Rostin Behnam

Markets

He Exposed Harvard President's Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story

Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay's resignation – though he's yet to profit from his scoops.

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Dr. Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Pamela Nadell, Professor of History and Jewish Studies at American University, and Dr. Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee at the Rayburn House Office Building on December 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Committee held a hearing to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Markets

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket

Polymarket saw betting contracts worth more than $5.7 million change hands on Wednesday.

Bitcoin ETF frenzy drives volume growth on prediction markets. (Obsahovka/Pixabay)

Policy

CFTC Chief: Nothing Changed After FTX Meltdown to Empower Agency to Prevent Repeat

U.S. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam says his agency is still awaiting new authorities from Congress to get supervision power over the crypto markets.

Rostin Behnam

Policy

Prediction Market Kalshi Sues U.S. CFTC for Denying Its Contracts for Congressional Elections

The CFTC denied a valid hedging option when it rebuffed a plan to offer event contracts for traders to bet on political outcomes, the company said.

Kalshi will have a prediction contract weighed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Opinion

Americans (Seemingly) Aren't Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test

The CFTC keeps putting fences around prediction markets, which some say are better way to aggregate information.

tarot cards

Policy

CFTC Denies Kalshi’s Plan to Let Users Bet on Control of U.S. Congress

U.S. federal regulators said the plans weren't in the "public interest," after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt

CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

Markets

BitMEX's Prediction Market Is Now Live

Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.

Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)

Policy

CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi's Congressional Control Prediction Markets

Kalshi wants to let users bet on which political party will control Congress after an election.

(Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

Policy

CFTC to Review Prediction Market Kalshi’s Contracts to Bet on Control of Congress

The U.S. derivatives regulator has scheduled a June 26 meeting to discuss starting another review to evaluate whether to approve Kalshi’s event contracts.

Kalshi will have a prediction contract weighed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)