CFTC Gives No-Action Leeway to Polymarket, Gemini, PredictIt, LedgerX Over Data Rules

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued no-action letters to the operators of prediction markets platforms Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini and LedgerX/MIAX on Thursday, announcing that the companies did not have to meet certain recordkeeping demands as long as they meet other specified requirements, and that the companies might be able to clear contracts through a third-party clearing member.

The CFTC said in a press release that the no-action letters mean the regulator will not pursue any enforcement action — a court case alleging the companies broke the law — tied to how these companies comply with "certain swap-related recordkeeping requirements and for failure to report to swap data repositories data associated with binary option transactions."

"The no-action letters apply only in narrow circumstances and are comparable to no-action letters issued for other similarly situated designated contract markets and derivatives clearing organizations," the CFTC said.

According to the no-action letters, the issuers must: make sure that their contracts are fully collateralized at all times, only clear their contracts through their designated platform, publish all data tied to the contracts on their platforms after they are executed and otherwise conform to certain swap recording requirements.

Prediction markets are a growing sector of the crypto economy, having dramatically increased in popularity last year during the 2024 election and as Kalshi, another prediction market platform, secured judicial approval to launch elections contracts in the U.S.

Polymarket and Gemini have been working to formally launch (relaunch in Polymarket's case) prediction market operations in the U.S., with Gemini securing a CFTC approval earlier this week. Crypto exchange Coinbase is also working on launching its own in-house prediction market platform.

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