Prediction Markets


Markets

Traders split over whether Lighter’s LIT clears $3 billion FDV after launch

Prediction markets show traders clustering around a $2 billion–$3 billion range, with odds for $4 billion and $6 billion outcomes falling steadily after October's crash.

Lighter, LIT (Rudy and Peter Skitterians/Pixabay, modified by CoinDesk)

Markets

Dragonfly managing partner lays out his 2026 crypto predictions

The venture capitalist argues 2026 will favor proven crypto infrastructure, while several fast-growing segments reshape how the industry expands.

Abstract blockchain networks illustration with glowing cubes representing digital assets

Markets

Coinbase says three areas will dominate the crypto market in 2026

Coinbase Institutional says shifting market structure, not hype cycles, will shape crypto trading and adoption in 2026 as activity concentrates in a few key areas.

Abstract blockchain networks illustration with glowing cubes representing digital assets

Finance

Polymarket points to third-party login tool after users report account breaches

The platform attributed the incident to a third-party login provider, which several users speculated was Magic Labs, a popular tool for email-based logins.

Glasses in front of monitors with code (Kevin Ku/Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk)

Finance

Coinbase agrees to buy The Clearing Company to deepen prediction markets push

The deal brings a team with specialized experience building event-based trading systems, including veterans from Polymarket and Kalshi.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong speaking to House Speaker Mike Johnson on July 18, 2025. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Finance

Prediction markets beat Wall Street in forecasting inflation, Kalshi says

Kalshi's markets aggregate information from diverse traders with financial incentives, creating a "wisdom of the crowd" effect, the platform said.

Kalshi website on a laptop.

Markets

Prediction markets may offer a tax loophole for gamblers under Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, Coinbase says

A tax change in Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill may steer gamblers toward blockchain-based prediction markets to reduce their IRS bill, Coinbase said.

(Aidan Howe/Unsplash)

Markets

DraftKings enters prediction markets with CFTC-approved app for real-world events

The sports-betting giant enters the growing world of event contracts with CFTC-registered DraftKings Predictions in 38 states.

(Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

Policy

Coinbase files lawsuits in 3 states over attempts to regulate prediction markets

The crypto exchange is taking legal action against Connecticut, Michigan and Illinois, Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal wrote on X.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong speaking to House Speaker Mike Johnson on July 18, 2025. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Markets

Robinhood looks better placed than Coinbase for prediction-market upside, Mizuho says

Robinhood stands to gain more from prediction markets than Coinbase as users plan to deploy fresh capital rather than sell existing crypto, the bank said.

Robinhood logo on a screen