‘Deeply undervalued’ bitcoin faces continued bear market with no clear upside catalyst

After a volatile stretch for bitcoin BTC$87,889.89 in October and November 2025, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has been showing signs of stabilization, trading in the roughly $85,000-$90,000 range for several weeks.

At least a few analysts expect that status quo to remain.

“There may be catalysts to support higher prices in the coming weeks,” said Gerry O’Shea, head of global market Insights at Hashdex, pointing to possible shifts in U.S. monetary policy or progress on crypto legislation in Congress. “But right now, we’re in a range-bound market.”

Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at Schwab’s Center for Financial Research, echoed the cautious tone. “We think 2026 is going to be a positive year for bitcoin,” he said, noting that Schwab doesn’t set specific price targets. “But this could be a more boring year in crypto terms.”

According to Ferraioli, the reset in crypto market momentum is significant but also part of the natural rhythm of a maturing asset class. “From the low in November 2022 to the intraday peak last October of $126,000, bitcoin returned 8x in three years,” Ferraioli said. “The market is still digesting that.”

In the months since that October record, on-chain activity has declined, and flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become the primary price driver. “You had low transaction fees, long-term holders selling, and exchange balances falling to lows,” Ferraioli continued. “It was really being driven by ETF flows.”

That shift has made bitcoin more accessible but may also be distorting short-term market signals. “True institutional investors are still not really in this space,” Ferraioli added. “Once we get some legislation, that could be the next driving force for a more sustainable rally.”

Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, said bitcoin’s narrative is in flux and that digital assets have taken a backseat to other asset classes, especially since ETF inflows, which spiked early in the year, have cooled. Without renewed institutional demand or a macroeconomic shift, he expects sideways price action.

That aligns with Will Reeves, CEO of fintech firm Fold, who said bitcoin is simply waiting for supply and demand dynamics to shift. “It’s deeply undervalued,” Reeves said. “It’s waiting for persistent sellers to exhaust and for a broader wave of buyers to enter the market.”

Whether or not the market is in a new crypto winter is still up for debate. “Bitcoin is, for sure, in a bear market by the classic definition,” Ferraioli said. “But given its volatility, a 30% correction is almost expected.”

“There’s always a degree of perceived correlation with equities,” Ferraioli concluded. “But bitcoin has its own drivers — money supply, disinflationary supply growth, and adoption. And adoption is the big question mark this year.”