6 Best Decentralized Prediction Markets With No KYC in 2026
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Decentralized prediction markets let users speculate on future events, including politics, geopolitical events, pop culture, and sports, without relying on intermediaries. They differ from traditional bookmakers and centralized platforms in that decentralized marketplaces help traders avoid custodial risks, sportsbook “vigorish”, bet size restrictions, and withdrawal friction.
Our guide explains how decentralized prediction exchanges work, their legal framework, and why a rising number of traders choose them over centralized providers. We also review the best places to access prediction markets in a non-custodial environment, and rank the top platforms by liquidity, KYC requirements, available markets, security, and fees.
- In This Article
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- 1. Overtime - Decentralized Sports Markets With Liquidity-Pooled Pricing
- 2. PRDT - Cross-Chain Price Prediction Markets With Organic Staking Rewards
- 3. Polymarket - Partially Decentralized Prediction Markets Using Optimistic Oracles
- 4. OPINION - BNB Chain Prediction Market for Macroeconomic Events
- 5. Gnosis Protocol v1 - Smart Contract-Based Prediction and Exchange Settlement Framework
- 6. Azuro - Backend Infrastructure for Building Decentralized Sports Betting Markets
- In This Article
-
- 1. Overtime - Decentralized Sports Markets With Liquidity-Pooled Pricing
- 2. PRDT - Cross-Chain Price Prediction Markets With Organic Staking Rewards
- 3. Polymarket - Partially Decentralized Prediction Markets Using Optimistic Oracles
- 4. OPINION - BNB Chain Prediction Market for Macroeconomic Events
- 5. Gnosis Protocol v1 - Smart Contract-Based Prediction and Exchange Settlement Framework
- 6. Azuro - Backend Infrastructure for Building Decentralized Sports Betting Markets
- Show Full Guide
Top Decentralized Prediction Markets List
The following table compares the best decentralized prediction markets based on our extensive research:
| Name | 30-Day Volume | Status | Key Decentralized Feature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overtime | No public data (pool-based model) | Decentralized | Sports AMM on Optimism/Arbitrum/Base |
| PRDT | No public data (pool-based model) | Decentralized | On-chain settlement for price predictions |
| Polymarket | $2.7 billion | Partially decentralized | UMA optimistic oracle and on-chain settlement |
| OPINION | $3.1 billion | Partially decentralized | ZK-settlement and multi-agent AI oracles |
| Gnosis Protocol v1 | N/A (infrastructure only) | Decentralized | Smart contract-based execution |
| Azuro | $2.4 million | Decentralized | On-chain Liquidity Tree infrastructure |
Best Decentralized Web3 Prediction Markets Reviewed
We connected non-custodial wallets to over 15 platforms to identify the best crypto prediction markets. This process enabled us to explore the user interface, place YES/NO trades to assess liquidity, and test cryptocurrency payments.
Our reviews discuss the pros and cons of the top contenders. Read on to choose the right decentralized prediction market for you.
1. Overtime – Decentralized Sports Markets With Liquidity-Pooled Pricing
We found that Overtime is the best decentralized prediction market for sports fans. It runs on the Optimism, Arbitrum, and Base networks to ensure lightning-fast settlement and near-zero fees. As a fully on-chain betting platform, users avoid pain points associated with traditional bookmakers, such as banning winning players, refusing payouts, or restricting withdrawals.
Instead, the platform relies on decentralized smart contracts to handle wagers. Once players transfer digital assets to the unique contract address, the smart contract locks the bet. Chainlink oracles settle bets based on unbiased data, and after they reach a consensus, a smart contract sends the winnings to the player’s wallet automatically.
We also like Overtime’s automated market maker (AMM) system. Anyone can provide liquidity to AMM pools to earn passive income, and it allocates collected funds to winning players. This framework eliminates centralized sportsbook control, although some prediction markets lack sufficient liquidity to handle large wagers.
To access Overtime’s decentralized betting site, connect a self-custody wallet like MetaMask or Trust Wallet. Users then place bets with top stablecoins such as Tether (USDT), USDC (USDC), and Dai (DAI), as well as Ethereum (ETH) and Arbitrum (ARB).
| Chains | Optimism, Arbitrum, and Base |
| Markets | Sports |
| Supported Cryptocurrencies | USDT, USDC, DAI, ETH, ARB |
| Fees | 2% protocol fee |
| 30-Day Volume | No public data (pool-based model) |
2. PRDT – Cross-Chain Price Prediction Markets With Organic Staking Rewards
PRDT is a cross-chain prediction marketplace that runs on EVM-compatible networks, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Polygon, and Base. It focuses on and specializes in decentralized binary markets, where users predict cryptocurrency price movements.
For example, traders can speculate whether the BTC/USD price rises or falls within a short timeframe, and most markets range from five to 30 minutes with average odds of 1.94/2.06.
You can choose between classic or pro platforms based on your experience level and goals. The classic version offers a simplified dashboard with enhanced multipliers. Pro users access advanced trading tools and deeper market intelligence.
The cross-chain ecosystem requires a minimum bet size of just $2.50, although it caps maximum wagers to $250. Traders pay a 5% entry fee on all positions, and the platform allocates 80% of revenues to the PRDT community.
Those who hold its native token, PRDT, earn competitive staking rewards with favorable terms. They can automatically withdraw earnings or hold for longer periods to compound returns.
| Chains | Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Nibiru |
| Markets | Cryptocurrency prices |
| Supported Cryptocurrencies | USDT, USDC, POL, ETH, NIBI, SOL, BNB |
| Fees | 5% entry fee |
| 30-Day Volume | Not published |
3. Polymarket – Partially Decentralized Prediction Markets Using Optimistic Oracles
Built on the Polygon network, Polymarket is a leading prediction marketplace with 30-day trading volumes of over $2.7 billion. It offers thousands of markets across a wide range of betting categories.
Serious traders speculate on geopolitical events, politics, company earnings, and central bank policy meetings. The platform also supports novelty markets like mentions, Tweet counts, and YouTube video views, which also generate significant trading volume.
Unlike most prediction exchanges, Polymarket offers a fee-free experience. Traders cover Polygon gas fees only (typically under $0.01) with no commissions on winning positions. It also offers a rewards-driven liquidity program with daily payouts. Users earn USDC when they provide liquidity on select markets.
In terms of custodianship, Polymarket is partially decentralized. Platform users open accounts to place bets, which the exchange could theoretically close without notice.
However, since smart contracts govern its prediction markets, Polymarket cannot touch client-owned funds. If it were to close the user’s account, they could withdraw their USDC tokens directly from the underlying Polygon smart contract.
| Chains | Polygon |
| Markets | Politics, sports, cryptocurrency, finance, geopolitics, earnings, technology, culture, world, economy, climate & science, elections, mentions |
| Supported Cryptocurrencies | USDC |
| Fees | None |
| 30-Day Volume | $2.7 billion |
4. OPINION – BNB Chain Prediction Market for Macroeconomic Events
OPINION is a top choice for prediction market traders who have expertise in macroeconomic data. Most of its betting markets focus on central bank interest rates, and featured institutions include the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank.
The exchange uses the central limit order book (CLOB) model, which enables users to trade macroeconomic outcomes on a peer-to-peer basis. Smart contracts settle wagers and payouts, yet OPINION relies on off-chain order matching, making it partially decentralized.
While OPINION also restricts users from certain countries (including the U.S.), it has no KYC procedures.
We tested OPINION on mobile and desktop devices and found that both platforms offer a smooth user experience. Despite appealing to professional analysts, the trading dashboard supports well-optimised order forms and charts that even beginners can navigate seamlessly.
To incentivize liquidity providers, market makers trade commission-free. Takers pay variable commissions of up to 2%; specific fees depend on the market and real-time odds.
On-chain data shows that OPINION users traded over $3.1 billion last month. These trading volumes outperform Polymarket.
| Chains | BNB Chain |
| Markets | Macroeconomics |
| Supported Cryptocurrencies | USDT |
| Fees | Takers pay 0–2% depending on the market ($0.50 minimum). Makers trade commission-free |
| 30-Day Volume | $3.1 billion |
5. Gnosis Protocol v1 – Smart Contract-Based Prediction and Exchange Settlement Framework
Gnosis Protocol v1 offers important smart contract tools for decentralized prediction markets, but it is not a platform for regular users. It lets other protocols create, trade, and settle bets in a transparent and trustless way.
Besides its own Layer 1 blockchain, Gnosis Chain, the platform also supports developers from other networks. It works with Ethereum and other EVM-compatible blockchains.
As an early pioneer of prediction markets, its innovative conditional token model separates contract logic from liquidity. This framework allows prediction exchanges to offer non-binary outcomes with objective resolution rules and transparent, on-chain settlement.
Differing from most prediction markets, Gnosis does not tie resolution settlement to a single oracle supplier. Instead, it allows developers to define resolution mechanisms for individual betting markets before events launch.
| Chains | Gnosis Chain, Ethereum, and EVM-compatible networks |
| Markets | N/A |
| Supported Cryptocurrencies | N/A |
| Fees | N/A |
| 30-Day Volume | N/A |
6. Azuro – Backend Infrastructure for Building Decentralized Sports Betting Markets
Azuro is designed for Web3 developers building decentralized sports prediction apps and also provides backend tools for non-custodial platforms.
Azuro lets projects build trustless sportsbooks without making their own prediction systems. Developers then use Azuro’s smart contracts for match scheduling, betting, settlement, and payouts, which link to both shared liquidity pools and oracle data for quick, accurate results.
Probably the easiest example is a football prediction marketplace that finds the real-time scores and settles bets on-chain as soon as the oracles verify outcomes. While users place bets via the marketplace’s user-friendly interface, it is the smart contracts themselves that hold funds, no centralized accounts required.
The key takeaway is that Azuro does not operate a sportsbook or interact with bettors directly. It supplies the backend framework while individual applications control sportsbook dynamics, user experience, and fees.
| Chains | Ethereum and EVM-compatible networks |
| Markets | Sports |
| Supported Cryptocurrencies | N/A |
| Fees | N/A |
| 30-Day Volume | $2.4 million |
What Is a Decentralized Prediction Market?
Decentralized prediction markets let users trade real-world outcomes without any middlemen, such as sportsbooks or centralized trading platforms. Markets cover a wide range of betting categories, including presidential elections, central bank policies, and sports events. Multi-outcomes also exist, such as how many basis points the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by.
As a crypto binary concept, each prediction market offers YES or NO shares between $0.01 and $1. Market forces determine share prices based on the perceived probability.
The probability of YES shares priced at $0.10 is 10%. If the market resolves as YES, those shares pay $1, while NO shares pay $0 (and vice versa). The profit element on winning shares depends on the price that the trader secured when they entered the position.
How Do Decentralized Prediction Markets Work?
On the client-facing side, most decentralized Web3 prediction markets use similar frameworks.
Traders explore prediction markets by selecting their preferred category, such as politics or geopolitical events. Within that category, the platform lists individual markets like “Will the U.S. acquire part of Greenland in 2026?”, alongside share prices for YES/NO outcomes. Exchanges usually let anyone suggest new markets before putting the proposal to a governance vote.
Traders purchase “YES” or “NO” shares with cryptocurrencies, and the win potential depends on the share price, ranging from $0.01 to $1. The prices fluctuate like traditional shares, based on news updates.
Prediction markets have a binary outcome when resolved, where traders win $1 per share or lose their original stake. Rare exceptions include if a market does not resolve in either direction, in which case smart contracts can return participant wagers. Traders can also exit their position before the finish line, which allows them to lock in a profit early (or mitigate losses).
While platforms may have different resolution processes, most decentralized operators use oracles, which confirm the result with multiple sources (government reports, authoritative newspapers, and official press releases). As a user, always review the platform’s resolution terms, as vague or contradictory language can affect winning outcomes.
Once the decision is made, smart contracts transfer winning shares at $1 per contract to the user’s non-custodial wallet. Some platforms, such as Polymarket, require users to request a withdrawal manually, which triggers smart contract execution.
Here is a hypothetical example of a decentralized prediction market:
- Market: “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?”
- On the “Rick Rieder” contract, the prediction market offers YES ($0.26) and NO ($0.73) share prices. These prices reflect 26% and 73% outcome probability, respectively.
- To purchase one share on YES, you pay $0.26 to win $1. Purchasing NO shares costs $0.73 to win $1.
- If Trump nominates Rick Rieder as Fed Chair, YES shares win, which reflects a 284% profit upside. Those who purchase NO shares lose their initial wager.
- Alternatively, if Trump nominates another candidate, NO shares win at a 37% upside, and YES shares lose.
Fees, Costs, and Economics
Because decentralized prediction markets run on blockchains, each bet triggers a smart contract request, so traders will need to pay network (“gas”) fees to enter and exit positions, similar to trading tokens on top decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and Raydium. These fees are typically negligible on blockchains like Polygon and BNB Chain, which charge around $0.01 per transaction.
While Polymarket does not charge commissions, most prediction markets apply fees to buy and sell orders. OPINION traders pay 0–2% of the position size on market orders, and 0% on limit orders. These fees reflect centralized exchanges and apply regardless of whether the trader wins.
On Overtime, bettors pay a 2% protocol fee. The platform redistributes a percentage of those fees into the community, which helps fund liquidity provider rewards. PRDT uses a similar system; traders pay a 5% entry fee, and 80% of those fees go to token stakers.
Prediction traders need to consider traditional spreads and slippage risks, especially when operating in low-liquid markets. This kind of market increases the risk of trading costs, so evaluating how wagers impact price is essential.
Accuracy, Bias, and Market Efficiency
Institutions and media outlets have begun to consider prediction market data as a source of truth. Share prices often reflect private information flows or participants with superior data, and these signals can influence prediction prices because, regardless of the back end, it is buyers and sellers who drive YES/NO values.
During the 2024 presidential election, crowd-based prediction markets gave more accurate predictions than traditional opinion polls or bookmaker odds. Days before the election date, most media polls had Trump and Kamala at a 50/50 split. On Polymarket, the split heavily favored Trump at 58%.
Due to common biases, experienced traders can also often identify edges over the broader market. Meanwhile, narrative-driven markets, such as “Bitcoin reaching a key pricing level”, tend to favor YES outcomes over NO. Early prediction markets can also misprice outcomes, with increased volatility as the conclusion comes nearer (in turn, providing additional trading opportunities).
Key Components Behind Decentralized Prediction Market Platforms
Traders use decentralized prediction markets to mitigate custody risks and unfair operator practices, such as high vigorish (adverse house edge), stake limitations, and refusing to pay winning bets.
To decentralize the betting experience, platforms use blockchain initiatives like smart contracts and oracles. Learn more about these innovative tools in the following sections.
Smart Contracts
Smart contracts function as the core foundation of decentralized prediction markets. They decentralize each aspect of the trading journey, from deposits and market resolution to bet settlement and payouts.
When a new event contract launches, the smart contract will lock the market’s “rules”, such as available betting contracts, resolution criteria, and expiry conditions.
Smart contracts also handle individual wagers. If a trader bets stablecoins on NO shares, they transfer assets to the smart contract address. This means that bets remain on-chain and that users don’t need to deposit funds into a third-party account.
After the bet finishes, a smart contract usually sends USDC to the trader’s wallet automatically. Traders eliminate payout friction because smart contracts operate in a trustless environment.
Oracles
Blockchain oracles, which also rely on smart contract technology, collect and verify data from the real world and submit that data to blockchains. This system enables decentralized prediction markets to settle outcomes fairly and transparently, since oracles must reach consensus before they verify results.
We found that the best decentralized prediction markets use oracles that allow disputes, which allow traders to challenge outcomes they believe the platform resolved incorrectly.
When disputes arise, oracle participants stake tokens to vote on the correct outcome. The voting process rewards users who vote correctly and penalizes those who vote incorrectly. Therefore, oracles ensure accurate resolution through incentive programs.
Liquidity Models
Prediction markets need crypto liquidity to facilitate YES and NO shares. Deep liquidity ensures tight spreads, minimal slippage, and smooth trading conditions.
Our research shows that decentralized platforms use the AMM or order book method for liquidity provision.
The AMM method uses decentralized liquidity pools. They allow traders to enter positions without needing another market participant to match the order. AMMs use advanced algorithms to determine prices, which reflect buy/sell activity and volume.
Polymarket prefers the order book system, where trades execute only when buy and sell order prices match. Because it relies on platform users to provide liquidity via limit orders, Polymarket incentivizes market makers with USDC rewards.
Why Do People Use Decentralized Prediction Markets?
Decentralized prediction market platforms experience rapid growth for the following key reasons:
- Speculation and Profit Opportunities: Traders speculate on a broad range of prediction markets to generate returns. From sports and macroeconomic events to political campaigns, prediction markets offer profit opportunities 24/7.
- Hedging Financial or Macro Risks: Due to the YES/NO system, prediction markets enable risk management strategies. Traders can hedge against market uncertainty to protect their portfolio valuations.
- Information Discovery and Forecasting Accuracy: Some people use decentralized prediction markets to analyze market data and make informed forecasting decisions, finding them a good “source of truth” or, at least, powerful forecasting tools.
- On-Chain Signals for DeFi Strategies: Prediction platforms frequently cover cryptocurrency-related markets, such as price movements, protocol upgrades, and public sale valuations. These markets provide decentralized finance (DeFi) participants with critical signals, allowing them to allocate funds efficiently and reduce risk.
- Social and Community Forecasting: Decentralized prediction markets often highlight collective viewpoints on social, cultural, and political outcomes. People use this data to evaluate broader sentiment across key demographics.
Regulation and Legal Landscape
Despite generating billions of dollars in monthly trading volume, prediction markets remain a nascent concept. As an emerging industry, regulation is both complex and vague.
U.S. authorities banned Polymarket in 2022, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fining the platform $1.4 million for operating without regulatory approval. The CFTC has since settled with Polymarket, and we can expect the company to launch a dedicated U.S. platform that aligns with market regulations. This legal distinction requires Polymarket to conduct standard KYC procedures. The global Polymarket has no ID verification requirements.
Several European countries ban prediction markets, including Poland, Belgium, France, and Italy.
UK authorities gave legal clarity in that prediction markets fall under the remit of the Gambling Commission. The regulator requires UK-serving platforms to hold Gambling Commission licenses, so many prediction exchanges have simply banned UK IP addresses.
But enforcement is a big challenge for global regulators as truly decentralized prediction markets operate within non-custodial frameworks: They have no central headquarters, and since smart contracts govern wagers and settled bets, authorities cannot intervene in the transaction process. Traders also use decentralized crypto wallets, too, which means they can trade prediction markets and store digital assets with complete autonomy.
In other Web3 industries, such as decentralized exchanges and DeFi, governance structures further hinder regulatory enforcement. Web3 prediction markets like PRDT issue governance rights to token holders, who can then vote on important ecosystem proposals. Those token holders link to public wallet addresses rather than real identities.
Risks and Limitations of Decentralized Prediction Markets
Several risks and challenges can impact the decentralized prediction market experience, so do consider these potential drawbacks before you proceed:
- Liquidity Risks: OPINION and Polymarket handle several billion dollars in monthly trading volume. Yet, many competitors process a small fraction of these volumes, resulting in liquidity issues. As more decentralized prediction markets launch, liquidity fragments across individual ecosystems.
- Resolution Risks: Some prediction contracts use vague or subjective resolution rules to determine outcomes. If a dispute process arises, oracles may vote based on an interpretation of those rules, which may not align with the true result.
- Expert and Bot-Driven: Experienced traders have an edge over casual users. They identify market mispricing and correlated hedges and capitalize on late-event volatility. Bots are also active on prediction markets, which compute and execute positions in microseconds.
- Legal Uncertainty: You must consider the legalities of prediction markets and cryptocurrencies in general. Whether your home country defines prediction markets as trading or gambling can trigger tax obligations.
- Learning Curve: Decentralized prediction markets often require traders to transfer cryptocurrencies to a smart contract address. Sending assets to the wrong address will result in a permanent loss of funds.
How to Get Started Safely
Follow these steps to get started with a decentralized prediction market platform:
- Choosing a reputable decentralized prediction market platform: Select a platform that supports your preferred prediction markets. Evaluate its safety record and approach to custodianship, and explore trading dynamics like fees, liquidity, and resolution rules. Refer to our platform reviews above to choose the right provider.
- Wallet setup and funding: Download a reputable software wallet that connects to the platform’s native network. Top non-custodial wallets like Best Wallet, MetaMask, and Trust Wallet support multiple blockchains, and they allow users to purchase cryptocurrencies with fiat money. Most prediction markets use stablecoins, so ensure you also hold the network’s proprietary coin to cover gas fees (e.g., USDT transfers on the Ethereum network require ETH).
- Managing risk and position sizing: Seasoned traders manage risk through bankroll management, often risking no more than 1%–3% of their balance on any single trade. Look for correlated prediction markets to hedge risk, such as election and primary events.
- Avoiding common beginner mistakes: Ensure you understand how YES/NO contract prices work before you place trades. If you place a large position, slippage risks increase if the prediction market lacks sufficient liquidity.
- Security best practices: While some marketplaces offer social features, scammers often paste nefarious links to scam users. Never click links within a prediction platform. Review whether credible blockchain security companies have audited the provider’s smart contract framework, and explore platform reviews on Reddit to gauge real user experiences. Follow wallet best practices, such as backing up seed phrases offline and enabling two-factor authentication or biometrics.
Centralized vs. Decentralized Prediction Markets
The largest prediction market by trading volume, Kalshi, uses a centralized model. It follows the same structure as Coinbase, Kraken, and other regulated exchanges, where users must complete KYC procedures before they trade.
Kalshi requires personal information, government-issued ID, and proof of address during the verification process. Verified users deposit funds with familiar payment methods such as debit cards, ACH, and Google/Apple Pay.
Kalshi holds client-owned funds in self-controlled accounts, so users need to trust Kalshi, as it technically has the authority to freeze balances or restrict account access, per its terms of service.
Decentralized prediction markets follow a completely different model in which the end-to-end client journey remains non-custodial: users place bets via decentralized wallets, and smart contracts ensure automated settlement without human intervention. Platforms hold no user funds, which helps them eliminate custody risks.
Although some decentralized providers require users to open accounts (e.g., Polymarket), there is no KYC process. The best crypto prediction markets use wallet connections instead, so users enjoy an anonymous trading experience without registering.
Regardless of custody, prediction markets rely on liquidity. Our research confirms that most centralized platforms use order books, where makers provide liquidity through limit orders. Decentralized operators prefer liquidity pools via the AMM mechanism.
So, which prediction market type is best for you?
If you prefer regulated platforms that support everyday payment methods, and you don’t mind completing KYC, centralized marketplaces might be a better fit.
Traders who prioritize privacy and want to avoid custody risks like bet limitations and withdrawal delays prefer decentralized platforms. A slight learning curve exists, as you must comfortably understand non-custodial wallets and smart contract approval.
Decentralized Prediction Markets vs. No-KYC Crypto Betting
No KYC crypto betting supports prediction market wagers in complete anonymity. Since you purchase YES or NO shares from a private wallet, platforms cannot view your identity. This privacy perk is unique to decentralized prediction markets because they function as non-custodial protocols.
This legal nuance matters, as it means protocols can never hold client funds or operate accounts.
While privacy features enable global accessibility and reduce data breach risks, no KYC betting can shift the legal burden on individual users.
If you live in a country that bans cryptocurrencies or gambling (some jurisdictions treat prediction markets as gambling), legal issues can arise. Tax authorities, who actively track on-chain activity to detect tax evasion and other financial crimes, can potentially identify users through blockchain forensics.
Ultimately, the privacy trade-off is a lack of consumer safeguards, chargeback protections, and domestic dispute resolution.
Methodology: How We Evaluated the Best Decentralized Prediction Markets
We created a criteria-based methodology to evaluate the best providers for 2026. Our top decentralized prediction markets list is based on the following research factors.
Liquidity Depth (20%)
Beginners often overlook liquidity when choosing a prediction market. Without stable liquidity across core events, traders cannot buy YES or NO shares at fair prices. Even modest orders cause slippage risks, where users pay a premium on the market’s perceived probability.
Given these factors, we tested liquidity depth on at least 30 prediction markets across each platform. Per market, we assessed how many dollars’ worth of YES or NO shares we could purchase without materially impacting their price.
Market Variety (20%)
We examined listed prediction categories and individual markets, from platforms serving a wide range of niches to those specializing in a single exclusive category.
Within each category, we scored platforms by the number of available events. Listing political events on a state, federal, and global level supports portfolio diversification and cross-correlation strategies.
Oracle Reliability (20%)
Oracles remain the core safeguard to ensure fair prediction market resolution. Reliability is essential for platform integrity and correct bet settlement.
We evaluated oracle sources, such as which authorities smart contracts collect data from and how they reach consensus. In addition, we analyzed dispute mechanisms and whether prediction outcomes require independent or governance-based verification.
Fees and UX (20%)
Fees eat away at trading profits, so we prioritized decentralized prediction markets with transparent and cost-effective commissions.
We found that some platforms apply entry and settlement fees on the total trade value, no matter the order type. Other platforms offer commission-free access to traders who provide liquidity. Higher scores went to marketplaces that reinvest fee revenues into the protocol.
To test the user experience (UX), we connected wallets, researched markets, and placed wagers on desktop and mobile devices. Since most platforms lack a native mobile app, we used Chrome and Safari on Android and iOS smartphones to rate the browser-based experience.
Chain and Wallet Support (20%)
We recorded which blockchain each prediction market operates on natively and whether it supports multi-chain access. PRDT lets users trade on seven different networks: Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, and Nibiru. Conversely, OPINION supports the BNB Chain only.
Wallet support also matters. If you use platforms that enable WalletConnect, you can choose from hundreds of decentralized wallets. Some marketplaces allow select wallets only, which may require you to use a provider you’re unfamiliar with.
Conclusion: Are Decentralized Prediction Markets Worth Using?
Decentralized prediction markets reduce exposure to counterparty risks and unfair trading practices. These platforms never hold client funds or ask for KYC documents, and they rely on smart contracts to handle resolution rules, wagers, and settlements. With no central authority in place, users avoid adverse vigorish and vague terms that impact the withdrawal experience.
Yet, decentralization comes at the cost of regulation. Non-custodial providers function on-chain, so they offer no consumer protections or licensing frameworks. Traders who prioritize regulatory safeguards use centralized prediction markets, which offer custodial accounts that follow strict KYC procedures.
Before you proceed, ensure you know how YES/NO shares work and how to safely use non-custodial wallets and smart contracts. Implement risk control strategies, too, including bankroll management and diversification.
FAQs
Are decentralized prediction markets legal?
Do decentralized prediction markets require KYC?
How do decentralized prediction markets make money?
Can you lose all your funds?
Are prediction markets gambling or financial instruments?
References
- How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t (CNN)
- All Bets Are On: The Rise of Prediction Markets (The New York Times)
- The business of predicting the future is booming but EU regulators remain uneasy (Euro News)
- Prediction markets arrive in UK, but with a different set of rules (The Observer)
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