Bitcoin Retirement Calculator

Plan your retirement using Base, Bull, and Bear Bitcoin scenarios. Toggle macro events to stress‑test outcomes. All numbers are estimates, you control the assumptions.

Inputs

Your current age

Planned retirement age

Life expectancy, average

Inflation assumption, %

BTC you own now

Additional BTC per year until retirement

Safe withdrawal rate, %

Target annual spending in retirement, today's dollars

Current BTC price, USD

Macro and Bitcoin events, adjust scenarios

Strong global spot ETF flows Tailwind

Persistent multi‑region ETF net inflows, inclusion in model portfolios.

Broad regulatory clarity Tailwind

Clear, boring rules for custody, taxes, and disclosures across major jurisdictions.

Sovereign or SWF reserve adoption Tailwind

Any credible central bank or SWF adds a small BTC sleeve.

Supportive energy policy for miners Tailwind

Miners integrated as flexible load or methane‑mitigation partners.

Risk‑on global liquidity, lower real rates Tailwind

Expanding liquidity, falling real yields, easier financial conditions.

Tight liquidity, high real rates Headwind

Persistent quantitative tightening, higher real yields, broad risk premia compression.

Adverse US or EU regulation Headwind

Restricted on‑ramps or custody that limit mainstream allocation.

Major protocol incident or large exploit Headwind

Severe, confidence‑damaging event across Bitcoin infrastructure.

Severe recession or deflation shock Headwind

Demand shock and deleveraging that weakens risk assets for an extended period.

50‑year horizon model

Model notes and anchors

This calculator blends a transparent price-path model with macro toggles and two retirement-spending methods. Everything below is editable and designed to be audit‑friendly.

Price path formula

Anchor bands at 2028, 2033, 2040, 2050, 2075 for Base, Bull, and Bear represent directional midpoints grounded in broadly discussed scenarios (ETF adoption, regulatory clarity, reserve diversification, miner economics).
Log interpolation between anchors: we compute the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between adjacent anchors and project forward to your retirement year.
CAGR = (P_t2 / P_t1)^1/(t2−t1) − 1; P_ret = P_t1 · (1 + CAGR)^(ret−t1)
Macro multipliers (checkboxes) apply multiplicative adjustments per scenario. Example: if Base has +10% from ETF flows and −15% from tight liquidity, net multiplier = 1.10 × 0.85 = 0.935.

Current anchors

2028: Base $225k, Bull $450k, Bear $115k
2033: Base $425k, Bull $1.05M, Bear $185k
2040: Base $800k, Bull $3.25M, Bear $350k
2050: Base $1.9M, Bull $10M, Bear $650k
2075: Base $3M, Bull $30M, Bear $550k

Macro toggle logic

Strong ETF flows: raises Base/Bull more than Bear to reflect persistent, regulated demand funnels.
Regulatory clarity: improves portfolio inclusion, narrows left‑tail risk.
Sovereign/SWF reserves: symbolic but powerful adoption, especially for Bull.
Miner‑friendly energy: lowers political/opex risk as block rewards decline.
Risk‑on liquidity: positive correlation with broader risk assets.
Tight liquidity, adverse regulation, protocol incidents, recession shocks reduce levels, especially Bear.

Portfolio & spending math

BTC at retirement = BTC_now + (Annual BTC purchases × Years to retirement).
Portfolio at retirement = BTC_ret × Price_{ret, scenario}.
Equal‑slice spending (nominal) = Portfolio / Years in retirement. “Today’s dollars” divides by inflation factor ( (1 + i)^{years to retirement} ).
SWR spending (first year) = Portfolio × safe withdrawal rate. “Today’s dollars” again divide by the inflation factor.
SWR and equal‑slice are planning heuristics, not guarantees. Markets, taxes, and sequence risk matter.

Sources & further reading

Bitcoin issuance & 21M cap: Unchained: The 21M supply in code · Bitcoin Magazine: Halving primer.
US spot ETF approvals (Jan 10, 2024): SEC Chair statement · CRS explainer (PDF).
Global ETFs: Reuters: HK initial approvals · FT: HK launches spot crypto ETFs.
EU MiCA timeline: MiCA Papers: implementation dates · Hogan Lovells overview.
Mining, grids, flexible demand: cPower: miners as flexible load · Duke study summary.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): Bengen (1994) PDF.
On stock‑to‑flow (S2F) limits: Emerald: dissecting S2F · MDPI survey.
ETF flows context: BlackRock IBIT facts · CryptoSlate/Bloomberg on 2024 flows.

This tool is for scenario planning; it is not investment advice. Edit anchors and multipliers to reflect your house view.