预测市场

预测市场

金融

加密预测市场正演变成危险的国家安全风险,国会希望禁止它们

由 Nicolas Vaiman 领导的 Bubblemaps 调查人员发现 Polymarket 上有 80 个投注,胜率达到 98%,他表示这一胜率在统计上是不可能实现的。

Bubblemaps CEO and Founder Nicolas Vaiman. (Bubblemaps)

政策

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)与国家冰球联盟(NHL)就预测市场保障措施达成协议

继类似的棒球协议之后,衍生品监管机构与职业冰球之间达成了新的合作安排。

San Jose Sharks' Macklin Celebrini (right)

政策

内华达监管机构在预测市场会议指责其导致市场变动后予以反驳

监管机构发言人否认曾对ARIA度假村及赌场施压,要求其举办Predict 2026

(Grant Cai/Unsplash)

政策

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)正与所有主要职业体育联盟就监管预测市场进行会谈

董事长迈克尔·塞利格表示,该机构已将多个州告上法庭,证明体育合约不仅仅是博彩,而是衍生品。

CFTC's Mike Selig - Consensus Miami 2026

金融

Kalshi 确认完成10亿美元融资,估值达220亿美元,正值预测市场蓬勃发展之际

尽管监管审查日益严格,该平台的机构交易量在过去六个月内激增了800%,年化交易活动达到了1780亿美元。

Kalshi co-founders Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour (Kalshi)

视频

GameStop's $55B eBay bid could liquidate its bitcoin

GameStop submitted an unsolicited $55.5 billion offer to buy eBay, and CEO Ryan Cohen hasn't ruled out selling the company's $368 million bitcoin treasury to fund it. If the deal closes, eBay's 135 million active buyers would be inside a company that holds bitcoin. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily."

GameStop's $55B eBay bid could liquidate its bitcoin

视频

All eyes on Coinbase after Robinhood's crypto revenue falls 47%

On this episode of Public Keys at the New York Stock Exchange, hosted by Jennifer Sanasie, Tether has proposed merging 21 Capital, Strike, and Elektron Energy into a single publicly listed Bitcoin company spanning accumulation, payments, and mining. Earnings season is here: Robinhood just posted a 47% drop in crypto revenue alongside a 320% surge in events contracts. Dan Dolev, Senior Analyst covering FinTech and Payments at Mizuho, breaks down what those numbers mean and what he's watching when Coinbase reports this week. Latin America's largest Bitcoin treasury company, OranjeBTC, just launched an American Depositary Receipt giving US investors direct access. Chairman Josh Levine explains why Brazil is one of the world's most natural Bitcoin markets. Plus, Visa and WeFi are merging traditional banking and blockchain rails. WeFi co-founder Reeve Collins, who also co-founded Tether, explains what that means for the future of global payments.

All Eyes on Coinbase After Robinhood's Crypto Revenue Falls 47%

市场

预测市场正在摒弃“赌场”标签,成为人们追踪新闻的常规工具

来自 Bitget 和 Polymarket 的一份最新报告显示,预测市场正发展成为一个价值 2400 亿美元的行业,主要由零售用户推动,他们在从加密货币到政治等各种领域中进行更加频繁的交易。

Poker chips and two dice (Heather Gill/Unsplash)

政策

在禁止自身参与预测市场下注后,美国参议员将不会对此发表意见

参议院全票通过修订议事规则,禁止议员及其工作人员参与预测市场平台上的投注。

U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

政策

Gemini 盯上预测市场,挑战 Kalshi 和 Polymarket,获得衍生品牌照;股价飙升

Tyler 和 Cameron Winklevoss 的加密货币交易所现已获得许可,允许其拓展至受监管的衍生品和预测市场——加密领域增长最快的板块。

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss at the White House on July 18, 2025. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)