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Mercados de Previsão

Últimas notícias e análises sobre Mercados de Previsão da CoinDesk, líder em jornalismo cripto. Cobertura aprofundada, insights de especialistas e atualizações de preços.

Mercados de Previsão

Tech

O Protocolo: Polymarket Alimenta Viciados em Política, Com Nate Silver

Na edição desta semana do boletim informativo sobre tecnologia blockchain da CoinDesk, analisamos a "fonte alternativa de notícias" que o site de apostas e previsões da Polymarket se tornou.

By Bradley Keoun

(Andrew Haimerl/Unsplash)

Finance

Polymarket contrata Nate Silver após receber US$ 265 milhões em apostas nas eleições dos EUA: Relatório

O mercado de previsões baseado em criptomoedas recebeu mais de US$ 400 milhões em apostas este ano.

By Oliver Knight

Nate Silver will now reportedly work for prediction market Polymarket. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)

Markets

As probabilidades de Trump na Polymarket atingiram outro recorde histórico após a escolha do vice-presidente Vance

Com um companheiro de chapa da geração Y, o ex-presidente agora tem 72% de chance de retomar a Casa Branca, sinalizam traders do mercado de previsões baseado em criptomoedas.

By Marc Hochstein

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: (L-R) Tucker Carlson, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, Republican Vice Presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

News Analysis

Chefe do Serviço Secret dos EUA provavelmente T será demitido, sinaliza aposta da Polymarket

O tiroteio no Rally de Trump criou sérias preocupações com o planejamento do Serviço Secret . Mais: Outra alta histórica para as chances de vitória de Trump; apostadores acham que o BTC continuará na sequência verde até o fim da semana.

By Sam Reynolds

LAUREL, MARYLAND (May 10, 2024) Director of the United States Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, speaks during the Secret Service Wall of Honor Ceremony at the James J. Rowley Training Center in Laurel, Maryland. (DHS photo by Tia Dufour)

Markets

Chances de vitória de Trump atingem recorde histórico na Polymarket após tiroteio

O ex-presidente, que se feriu em um Rally na Pensilvânia no sábado, agora tem 70% de chance de retomar a Casa Branca, de acordo com traders no mercado de previsão baseado em cripto. Os tokens Polifi com tema Trump e Cripto em geral também subiram.

By Marc Hochstein

BUTLER, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 13: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage by U.S. Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet during a rally on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania. Butler County district attorney Richard Goldinger said the shooter is dead after injuring former U.S. President Donald Trump, killing one audience member and injuring another in the shooting. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Markets

Biden ultrapassa VP Harris como candidato democrata mais provável no Polymarket durante entrevista coletiva do presidente (atualização)

O presidente disse que planeja permanecer na disputa, mas "é importante acalmar os medos".

By Marc Hochstein

The first portrait of Joe Biden as president of the United States, 2021. (The White House)

Markets

Chances do senador JD Vance, favorável à criptomoeda, como vice-presidente de Trump, dobram na Polymarket

Os traders no mercado de previsão baseado em criptomoedas agora veem uma chance de 29% de que o republicano de Ohio seja o companheiro de chapa do ex-presidente Trump, acima dos 14% de uma semana atrás.

By Helene Braun

Sen. JD Vance, right, with former U.S. President Donald Trump (Drew Angerer/Getty images)

News Analysis

Os Mercados de previsão e as pesquisas erraram nas eleições francesas

Além disso: os traders do Polymarket continuam céticos sobre a insistência de Biden em permanecer na corrida presidencial dos EUA; o ETH cairá para US$ 2.630?

By Sam Reynolds

PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 07: People are seen celebrating on the statue of Marianne on the Place de la Republique to celebrate after the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties including the far-left wing party, La France Insoumise came in first on July 07, 2024 in Paris, France. The National Rally party was expected to have a strong showing in the second round of France's legislative election, which was called by the French president last month after his party performed poorly in the European election, but first projections have shown an unexpected lead for French left wing alliance New Popular Front. (Photo by Remon Haazen/Getty Images)

Markets

As probabilidades de Biden no Polymarket mudaram pouco após a entrevista da ABC TV

As chances de reeleição do presidente estavam em 11% e sua probabilidade de desistir estava em torno de 64%, de acordo com traders na plataforma de previsão de mercado baseada em criptomoedas.

By Marc Hochstein

MADISON, WISONSIN - JULY 05: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by ABC, U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with 'This Week' anchor George Stephanopoulos on July 05, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. The president sat down with Stephanopoulos while on the campaign trail in Wisconsin, a few days after a debate with former President Donald Trump. (Photo by ABC via Getty Images)

Markets

As chances de Biden desistir aumentam para quase 80% no Polymarket após reportagem do New York Times

No início do dia, a porcentagem era de apenas 55%.

By Danny Nelson

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 27: U.S. President Joe Biden participates in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. President Biden and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump are facing off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
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