Bitcoin Bulls Bank on Fed's 'Stealth' Rate Cuts: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The one thing bitcoin BTC$89,772.09 bulls constantly discuss is liquidity easing through Fed interest-rate cuts and the possibility of rates falling back to zero, just as in 2020-21. Back then, the zero rate triggered an unprecedented bull run throughout the financial markets, including low-cap altcoins.

Now, new analysis from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco shows a 9% chance of the benchmark fed funds rate falling to the so-called zero lower bound within the next seven years. Current data shows expectations for elevated interest rates, but the chance of a zero level remains significant over the medium to long term, it said.

That's in the long term. The probability of rates falling that low in the next two years is just 1%. But remember, all it takes is just one black swan event like the Covid crash for the Fed to consider zero rates. For now, rates remain at 4.25% with traders pricing in a single 25 basis-point cut for the rest of the year.

The central bank, however, has been conducting stealth rate cuts, that is it's easing liquidity through measures such as reducing the "enhanced supplementary ratio" and freeing up money for banks to buy Treasury notes, according to Alexander Blume, CEO at investment adviser Two Prime. Furthermore, the Treasury recently expanded its buyback program, injecting additional capital into the economy, Blume said.

It's no surprise, then, that some large traders are anticipating renewed bullish volatility and pouring money into the $130K bitcoin call option on Deribit. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows for the third consecutive day on Monday, and traders are also chasing bullish futures bets in XRP.

In other news, Bit Digital completed its strategic Treasury shift to ether ETH$3,138.35following a $172 million public equity raise and the sale of 280 BTC. Dubai approved the QCD Money Market Fund, a joint product from Qatar National Bank and DMZ Finance. Australia-listed crypto fund manager DigitalX (DCC) raised A$20.7 million ($13.5 million) to boost its BTC stash.

Patrick Hansen, Circle's EU strategy director, disclosed on X that 53 companies have obtained licenses in the six months since the European Union implemented the MiCA crypto-asset regulation. The data shows strong demand for compliance-friendly products. Tether, the issuer of the world's largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, hasn't yet sought a license.

In traditional markets, the yield on the Japanese 30-year government bond yield rose to 3.11%, the highest since May 22, a sign of renewed volatility in government bonds across advanced nations. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 9, 11 a.m.: The Isthmus hard fork activates on CELO$0.1419 mainnet, an Ethereum layer-2 network, aligning its L2 stack with Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade and improving scalability, interoperability and security through key Ethereum Improvement Proposals.
  • July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a critical step in the exchange's restructuring after the $234 million hack on July 18, 2024.
  • July 15: Alchemist staking update launches, allowing token holders to stake ALCH for access to advanced features, premium benefits and ecosystem rewards, potentially boosting token utility and demand.
  • July 15: Lynq is expected to debut its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.
• Macro
  • July 8, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases May retail sales data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • Retail Sales YoY Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 4.8%
  • July 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases June consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.38% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.22% vs. Prev. 4.06%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.27% vs. Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.31% vs. Prev. 4.42%
  • July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
  • July 9, 2 p.m.: Release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the June 17–18 meeting.
  • July 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 026%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.32% vs. Prev. 5.32%
  • July 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended July 5.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 233K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1980K vs. Prev. 1964K
  • July 10, 1:15 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth. Livestream link.
  • July 10–11: The fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, bringing together global leaders and stakeholders to advance Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction amid the war with Russia.
  • Aug. 1, 2025, 12:01 a.m.: Reciprocal tariffs take effect after President Trump’s July 7 executive order delayed the original July 9 deadline, making this the start date for higher tariffs on imports from countries without trade deals.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • None in the near future.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
  • Compound DAO is running multiple votes on whether to adopt an Oracle Extractable Value (OEV) solution for Ethereum mainnet, Unichain, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Scroll, Mantle, Ronin and Linea. Delegates can choose between implementing Api3, Chainlink’s Secure Value Relay (SVR), or maintaining the current setup without OEV. Voting for all of these ends July 12.
  • July 9, 1 p.m.: Livepeer (LKPT) to host a Fireside Chat.
• Unlocks
  • July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $10.08 million.
  • July 12: APT$1.6617 to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $49.54 million.
  • July 15: STRK$0.1050 to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $14.05 million.
  • July 15: SEI$0.1257 to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $14.01 million.
  • July 16: ARB$0.2092 to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $30.21 million.
  • July 18: TRUMP$5.5120 to unlock 45.35% of its circulating supply worth $768.22 million.
  • July 18: FTN$0.5222 to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $88.8 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 8: Boom (BOOM) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, KuCoin, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.
  • July 9: RCADE Network (RCADE) to be listed on Binance, Gate.io, MEXC, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

• July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
• July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
• July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Sei Network’s total value locked (TVL) hit an all-time high of $626 million, marking a meteoric rise from just $60 million a year ago — a growth rate far exceeding most competing chains.
• Analysts attribute the surge to increased on-chain activity and capital inflows, with daily active addresses spiking to a two-year high following regulatory approval for the token's listing on local exchanges from Japan’s Financial Services Agency.
• Sei’s entry into the highly regulated Japanese market is seen as a key catalyst, boosting both investor confidence and institutional interest.
• The SEI price doubled in June, fueled by a U.S. government-backed stablecoin pilot and momentum around a proposed shift to an EVM-only architecture in SIP-3.
• Despite long-term upside, SEI remains volatile, currently down over 78% from its March 2024 peak and trading at $0.2649.
• $0.25 is now a critical technical support level, with some market watchers warning that a break below could lead to a retest of $0.20.
• Investors are watching closely as Sei juggles rapid growth with high-stakes network changes, regulatory tailwinds and a still-fragile technical setup.

Derivatives Positioning

• Negative perpetual funding rates for BNB, TRX, SOL, XLM and AVAX suggest a bias for shorts. BTC, ETH and XRP perpetuals show a moderate bullish bias with marginally positive rates.
• BTC and ETH activity on the CME remains dull, with the annualized three-month basis flat below 10%.
• On Deribit, traders are seeking bullish exposure through the bitcoin $130K strike calls.
• ETH block flows featured a long position in the $3,200 call expiring on Sept. 26 and a short position in the $2,100 put expiring on July 25.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.54%% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $108,467.33 (24hrs: -0.23%)
• ETH is up 0.74% at $2,552.44 (24hrs: -0.28%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.69% at 3,086.44 (24hrs: -0.45%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.97%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0036% (3.9157% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.14% at 97.35
• Gold futures are down 0.22% at $3,335.30
• Silver futures are unchanged at $36.93
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.26% at 39,688.81
• Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 24,148.07
• FTSE is up 0.15% at 8,820.05
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,342.75
• DJIA closed on Monday down 0.94% at 44,406.36
• S&P 500 closed down 0.79% at 6,229.98
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 20,412.52
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down unchanged at 27,020.28
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.68% at 2,695.20
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.415%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,281.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.24% at 22,938.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.11% at 44,630.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.3 (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02352 (0.18%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 884 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.87
• Total fees: 4.04 BTC / $438,326
• CME Futures Open Interest: 148,445
• BTC priced in gold: 32.6 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.22%

Technical Analysis

• The daily chart for programmable blockchain Solana's SOL token shows a triangular price consolidation following late June's breakout from a falling channel.
• Traders typically wait for clear direction cues to emerge in such situations.
• A breakout from the triangle will likely yield notable price gains.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $395.67 (-2.06%), +0.84% at $399.01
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $357.1 (+0.37%), +0.81% at $360
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $207.46 (+9.9%), -0.68% at $206.05
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $19.69 (-9.47%), +2.54% at $20.19
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.75 (-5.15%), +0.66% at $16.86
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.55 (-5.09%), +0.69% at $11.63
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.83 (-17.61%), +2.23% at $15.16
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.33 (-7.51%), +0.88% at $11.43
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.89 (-4.38%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.95 (-3.71%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.93 (-8.75%), +0.1% at $29.96

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $216.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $49.84 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $62.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $4.48 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~4.18 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows that the U.S.-listed spot ether ETFs registered net inflows worth 61,000 ETH in an eight-week winning streak.
• The continued uptake for ETFs suggests a bullish outlook for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

While You Were Sleeping

• BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF Surges Past 700K BTC in Record-Breaking Run (CoinDesk): IBIT’s $76 billion in assets, amassed in just 18 months, now surpasses ETFs like the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).
• Coinbase Recovers to Listing Day Valuation. What Next for COIN? (CoinDesk): COIN recently hit $380, revisiting its April 2021 Nasdaq debut level, as a bullish chart pattern signaled potential upside and most fundamental analysts remain optimistic about the stock.
• Bitcoin Traders Chase $130K Bets in Anticipation of Renewed Bullish Volatility (CoinDesk): Bitcoin has traded sideways for over 50 days as long-term holders sell, but traders are piling into $130K calls on Deribit anticipating renewed volatility from impending macro events.
• Bonk.fun Grabs 55% of Solana Token Issuance Share, Pushes BONK Demand (CoinDesk): Over the weekend, Bonk.fun surpassed Pump.fun as Solana’s top token launchpad, handling $540 million in volume from 175,000 memecoin launches and generating $34 million in fees.
• Europe’s Biggest Port Readies for Potential War With Russia (Financial Times): Rotterdam is coordinating with Antwerp to redirect civilian traffic and reserve terminals for military use, preparing for large-scale NATO cargo flows as part of the EU's efforts to become more self-reliant.
• China Inc Bets Beijing Will Keep Tight Grip on Yuan as US Tariff Fears Persist (Reuters): Chinese firms are piling into dollar deposits and currency swaps as Beijing’s policy moves suggest it may allow a slightly weaker yuan to help maintain export competitiveness amid U.S. tariff pressure.

In the Ether