Share this article
Michael Saylor's Strategy Drops $18B in Value, but a Rebound May Be Near: 10X Research
The company is expected to report another quarterly profit on Thursday, possibly reviving expectations for S&P 500 inclusion, 10x Research's Markus Thielen argued.
Oct 29, 2025, 3:48 p.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) has slumped 40% since July, but a potential rebound nears with upcoming catalysts, 10x Research's Markus Thielen said.
- Thielen expects the company to report a third quarter $3.6 billion profit from BTC mark-to-market gains, reviving speculation about S&P 500 inclusion.
- Inclusion in the index could mean $28 billion of buying pressure on the stock, said Thielen.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and long seen as a leveraged bet on the crypto, has shed nearly $18 billion in market value as enthusiasm dried up and its net asset value (mNAV) premium collapsed in recent months.
The stock may be poised for a rebound as a series of key catalysts could reverse the bearish trend as soon as this week, according to a fresh report by 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, who previously had been bearish on the name.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
"At today’s price, with the NAV premium largely gone, volatility trending higher, and a potential catalyst in the form of strong Q3 earnings and renewed S&P 500 inclusion speculation, we see Strategy as attractive at current levels," Thielen wrote, noting that the stock here could offer better value than bitcoin itself.
The stock's slump to below $280 (down another 1.8% on Wednesday) has left the market cap sitting at barely above the value of the bitcoin on the company balance sheet. That marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative premiums, said Thielen, which pushed the stock far above its fundamentals.
While the 40% decline since July left has sentiment “washed out” and retail interest low, the firm's Thursday earnings report could mark a pivot, said Thielen.
He expects the firm to report a roughly $3.6 billion profit from mark-to-market gains on its BTC holdings. The profit could reset speculation for a potential S&P 500 index inclusion decision in December — a move in which Thielen has now assigned a 60–70% probability.
Including the stock in one of the most important equity indexes in the world could drive up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, setting up MSTR for a similar rally seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) following their inclusions into the S&P 500.
"Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning," Thielen said.
Read more: Saylor's Strategy the First Bitcoin Treasury Company Rated by Major Credit Agency
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Crypto Markets Today: Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Lift BTC, ETH as Traders Brace for Volatility
Crypto markets are firm ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut already priced in.
What to know:
- Risk assets are buoyant ahead of the Fed, but rate decisions often trigger sharp intraday swings and a “sell-the-news” dip remains possible.
- Bitcoin sits at $92,300 and has spent the past week between $88,000 and $94,500; a break of either bound may set up the next move.
- Ether is outperforming post-Fusaka upgrade, but broader altcoin sentiment is weak with CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index at 16/100. HYPE, STRK, KAS and APT lead declines while AI token FET rebounds.
Top Stories
