Share this article
Bitcoin Volatility Is Still Compressing, Dimming Year-End Rally Outlook
Bitcoin's volatility indices are declining, just like the S&P 500's.
Updated Dec 10, 2025, 2:19 p.m. Published Dec 10, 2025, 1:05 p.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin's volatility indices are declining, just like the S&P 500's.
- The drop in bitcoin's implied volatility weakens the case for a year-end rally.
- Matrixport notes that the volatility compression suggests low odds of a significant price breakout.
Bitcoin's volatility indexes are still declining, mirroring those of the S&P 500, bringing a price stability that weakens the case for a year-end rally, according to one analyst.
BTC's annualized 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex's BVIV index, has dropped to 49%, nearly reversing the spike to 65% from 46% over the 10 days through Nov. 21, according to TradingView data.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Implied volatility is an options-based measure that represents the market's outlook for price swings over a specific period. The drop from 65% to 49% means expected price turbulence over the 30 days has declined from as much as 5 percentage points to 14%.
The VIX index, which represents the 30-day implied volatility in the S&P 500, has also dropped, reaching 17% from 28% since Nov. 20.
According to Matrixport, the so-called volatility compression suggests low odds of a year-end rally.
"Implied volatility continues to compress, and with it, the probability of a meaningful upside breakout into year-end," the firm said in a market update Wednesday. "Today's FOMC meeting represents the final major catalyst, but once it passes, volatility is likely to drift lower into the year-end."
Matrixport's view aligns with bitcoin's historical positive price-volatility correlation, though this relationship has gradually shifted toward the negative since November 2024.
On Wall Street, implied volatility compression is typically associated with a bullish reset in the market sentiment.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Robinhood Stock Slides 8% After Big Decline in November Trading Volumes
Slumps across equity, options and crypto trading in November raised concerns that retail investor momentum may be fading.
What to know:
- Robinhood reported a sharp drop in trading volumes across equities, options and crypto in November.
- The company's total platform assets also fell 5% month-over-month to $325 billion.
- The slowdown in trading activity raised investor concerns that retail engagement may be fading heading into year-end.
Top Stories
