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Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Outperforming Bitcoin in the Longer Term
Bitcoin adoption will need to be driven by the development of real uses rather than speculative interest, the report said.
著者 Will Canny
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Bitcoin’s value proposition is based on the cryptocurrency’s potential usefulness. Its level of future adoption, therefore, is more sensitive to changes in interest rates – or has a longer duration – than gold, Goldman Sachs (GS) said in a research report Monday looking at the benefits of both assets in a diversified portfolio.
In the last year came the “end of a decade of easy money” as central banks raised interest rates saw a sharp reduction in speculative positions in gold and bitcoin, the report said. However, gold is roughly unchanged year on year, whereas bitcoin is down 75%, in line with high-growth tech companies.
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Tight financial conditions are expected to be a drag on bitcoin’s user adoption, the report said, and this makes a repeat of the cryptocurrency’s strong returns of the last decade less likely. Volatility will likely remain elevated until it develops more use cases.
“The development of real use cases is also crucial to reducing bitcoin’s volatility, but is by no means guaranteed and may take a long time to play out,” analysts Mikhail Sprogis and Jeffrey Currie wrote.
Goldman says such conditions will be a smaller drag on the price of gold as it is a “shorter duration real asset with developed user cases,” adding that the metal “may benefit from structurally higher macro volatility and a need to diversify equity exposure.”
The cryptocurrency’s adoption has been boosted by easy financial conditions, the bank said, with some investors more willing to “explore low liquidity, high risk/return options like bitcoin.” With tighter financial conditions expected moving forward, speculative interest in bitcoin is likely to decline.
Bitcoin is more levered to financial conditions than gold because the metal has “developed non-investment cases today while bitcoin is still looking for one,” the note said, adding that BTC is a “solution looking for a problem.” The majority of bitcoin supply has not moved for over a year, which suggests that it is being held for investment purposes, the note added.
Read more: Goldman: Regulators Should Protect Crypto Investors at the Point of Trust, Not the Blockchain
あなたへの
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
知っておくべきこと:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
あなたへの
Here's what bitcoin bulls are saying as price remains stuck during global rally
It's about a lot more than "zooming out." Supply overhangs and investor "muscle memory" regarding gold help explain bitcoin's poor absolute and relative performance.
知っておくべきこと:
- Bitcoin has failed so far to act as an inflation hedge or safe-haven asset, lagging badly behind gold, which has surged amid high inflation, wars, and interest rate uncertainty.
- Crypto advocates argue that bitcoin’s weakness reflects a temporary supply overhang, investor “muscle memory” favoring familiar precious metals and its correlation with risk assets, rather than a collapse in long-term demand.
- Many bitcoin proponents still see BTC as a superior long-term store of value and “digital gold,” predicting that, once traditional hard assets are overbought, capital will rotate into bitcoin, allowing it to “catch up” to gold.
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