Bu makaleyi paylaş
Short-Term BTC Holders, Stablecoin Supplies Could Indicate Cryptos' Future Price Direction
The two data points may show whether bitcoin moves higher or declines further in the aftermath of the U.S. central bank's 25 basis point rate increase Wednesday.
Yazan Glenn Williams Jr.
To wide expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Yet, two crypto indicators – stablecoin supply and the profitability of bitcoin held by investors with short-term horizons – will likely have greater impact for investors than the decision.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Başka bir hikayeyi kaçırmayın.Bugün Crypto Daybook Americas Bültenine abone olun. Tüm bültenleri gör
A full 97.5% of bitcoin circulating supply held by short-term investors is now in profit, as the current price exceeds the average cost basis.
“Short term” means bitcoin that was acquired less than 155 days ago, and often includes participants who are newer to the market or more apt to trade in and out of positions quickly.
A full 98% of short-term holders sitting in profit on the day of the FOMC rate decision means that if enough people view Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments as bearish could result in additional selling pressure.
But a more bullish interpretation of his remarks could lead to short-term holders holding their positions and ultimately moving into the long-term holder (155 days or more) cohort. Investors holding bitcoin signals that they believe the price will increase.
The total supply held by long-term bitcoin holders has increased 5% over the past year.
As long-term holders are less likely to spend bitcoin, increases in this group can serve as a supportive base of relatively illiquid supply, undergirding bitcoin’s price.
Still, for that to take hold a stablecoin supply shift would be helpful as well.
The aggregate supply net position change of the four top stablecoins has steadily contracted since April 2022. Stablecoins serve as the mechanism by which a large portion of digital assets like bitcoin and ether are purchased.
An expansion of stablecoin supply indicates an increase in capital available for deployment. A contraction indicates the opposite. For investors with a bullish view on BTC, the former occurring would be the more attractive development.
As capital markets continue to digest the rate decision and subsequent FOMC commentary, monitoring short-term holders to see whether BTC prices sell off will be important. Additionally, tracking the supply of stablecoins will give clues to the extent that BTC may move higher.
Sizin için daha fazlası
KuCoin Hits Record Market Share as 2025 Volumes Outpace Crypto Market
Tarafından sipariş edildiKuCoin
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
Sizin için daha fazlası
Strategy shares register first six-month losing streak since adoption of bitcoin strategy in 2020
Crypto analyst Chris Millas has highlighted an unusually persistent slump in Strategy shares, breaking with past drawdown patterns even as the firm continued accumulating bitcoin.
Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- Strategy shares fell in each of the final six months of 2025, marking the first time since the firm adopted bitcoin in August 2020 as a treasury reserve asset.
- The decline stands out for its persistence, as past selloffs were often followed by sharp rebounds.
- The stock sharply underperformed both bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 despite the firm's continued BTC purchases.
Top Stories
