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Short-Term BTC Holders, Stablecoin Supplies Could Indicate Cryptos' Future Price Direction
The two data points may show whether bitcoin moves higher or declines further in the aftermath of the U.S. central bank's 25 basis point rate increase Wednesday.
Updated Mar 23, 2023, 3:15 p.m. Published Mar 22, 2023, 10:35 p.m.
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To wide expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Yet, two crypto indicators – stablecoin supply and the profitability of bitcoin held by investors with short-term horizons – will likely have greater impact for investors than the decision.
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A full 97.5% of bitcoin circulating supply held by short-term investors is now in profit, as the current price exceeds the average cost basis.
“Short term” means bitcoin that was acquired less than 155 days ago, and often includes participants who are newer to the market or more apt to trade in and out of positions quickly.
A full 98% of short-term holders sitting in profit on the day of the FOMC rate decision means that if enough people view Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments as bearish could result in additional selling pressure.
But a more bullish interpretation of his remarks could lead to short-term holders holding their positions and ultimately moving into the long-term holder (155 days or more) cohort. Investors holding bitcoin signals that they believe the price will increase.
The total supply held by long-term bitcoin holders has increased 5% over the past year.
As long-term holders are less likely to spend bitcoin, increases in this group can serve as a supportive base of relatively illiquid supply, undergirding bitcoin’s price.
Still, for that to take hold a stablecoin supply shift would be helpful as well.
The aggregate supply net position change of the four top stablecoins has steadily contracted since April 2022. Stablecoins serve as the mechanism by which a large portion of digital assets like bitcoin and ether are purchased.
An expansion of stablecoin supply indicates an increase in capital available for deployment. A contraction indicates the opposite. For investors with a bullish view on BTC, the former occurring would be the more attractive development.
As capital markets continue to digest the rate decision and subsequent FOMC commentary, monitoring short-term holders to see whether BTC prices sell off will be important. Additionally, tracking the supply of stablecoins will give clues to the extent that BTC may move higher.
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Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
Sizin için daha fazlası
Aptos drops 5% to $1.50 as volume spikes above monthly average
The token has resistance at the $1.53 and then the $1.64 levels.
Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- APT fell from $1.59 to $1.51 over the 24-hour period.
- Volume jumped 23% above the 30-day moving average, signaling institutional participation.
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