Fed Rate-Cut Odds Plunge Further on Jobs Data Delays

Markets are further dialing back expectations for another interest rate cut this year after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it won’t release jobs data for October and the November report will be delayed until after the Federal Reserve's December.

Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now see just a 33% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts rates at its final policy meeting of 2025, down from 50% just a day earlier. Recall that less than one month ago, the chances of a December rate cut were more or less 100%. Following the Fed's late October meeting though, Chairman Jerome Powell shocked markets by pouring cold water on ideas.

Over the ensuing weeks, speeches and interviews with Fed members revealed just how deep the divisions were at the central bank for further ease of monetary policy, including this afternoon's release of the minutes of that October meeting.

There are surely myriad reasons for the plunge in crypto prices over the past few weeks, but the reversal in expectations about future monetary ease ranks high. Bitcoin stood at $110,000 just ahead of Powell's late October comments and at $89,000 currently.

The carnage in crypto-related stocks has been even worse, with previously red-hot names like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) lower by 10% on Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy is also down 10% today and almost 40% over the past month.

Today's news about the jobs reports means Fed policymakers will be without one of their most important inputs at the December meeting. The Fed has long based its decisions on real-time labor and inflation data. Without any fresh numbers showing a material slowdown in employment, it's hard to see the hawks reversing to support another rate cut this year.

President Donald Trump added to the noise this week, saying at an investment forum Wednesday that he’d already have fired Jerome Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging to let the Fed chair remain on the job until his term ends in 2026.

“The only thing Scott is blowing it on is the Fed, because the Fed, the rates are too high, Scott,” Trump said. “And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass.”

There will be one national employment report, though, between now and the Fed's December meeting. That's the September number and it's due to be released Thursday morning. Given the "oldness" of the data, it's hard to imagine it having an effect on either the dovish or hawkish central bank members.