Share this article
Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves
The bet was resolved as 'yes' despite no official agreement, leading to suspicions of manipulation by a large UMA token holder, but Polymarket defended the UMA voting process.
Updated Mar 27, 2025, 12:02 p.m. Published Mar 27, 2025, 12:01 p.m.
What to know:
- A controversial $7 million bet on Polymarket, a prediction platform, over a potential Ukraine-U.S. mineral deal has caused a rift between Polymarket and UMA communities.
- The bet was resolved as 'yes' despite no official agreement, leading to suspicions of manipulation by a large UMA token holder, but Polymarket defended the UMA voting process.
- Polymarket acknowledged the premature resolution and is seeking community input for preventing similar issues, promising clearer rules and updates, though specifics are yet to be announced.
A contentious $7 million bet on prediction platform Polymarket has sparked disagreement between the Polymarket and UMA communities.
The bet, which speculated on whether Ukraine would agree to a mineral deal with U.S. President Donald Trump before April, saw its "yes" probability surge from 9% to 100% between March 24 and 25, despite no official agreement being reached.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Polymarket relies on UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to determine the outcomes of its prediction markets.
In this system, anyone can propose a resolution by staking a $750 USDC.e bond, which can then be challenged. If a dispute arises, UMA token holders vote to settle the matter.
In this case, the bet resolved as "yes," leading many users to suspect manipulation by a "UMA whale" — a holder of a large number of UMA tokens capable of influencing the vote.
Polymarket responded via its Discord server, admitting the resolution was unexpected but denying it constituted a "market failure" that would warrant refunds.
It clarified that the market was resolved too soon, as no deal between Ukraine and the U.S. has been confirmed, yet it stood by the UMA voting process to correct the outcome.
Polymarket has since turned to its community for suggestions on preventing future issues, promising clearer rules and forthcoming updates, though it has yet to detail specific changes.
Read more: Polymarket Suffers UMA Governance Attack After Rogue Actor Becomes Top-5 Token Staker
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
More For You
Tether adds nearly $800 million in bitcoin, bringing holdings above 96,000 BTC
The purchase is part of Tether's strategy to use up to 15% of its quarterly profits for bitcoin acquisitions.
What to know:
- Tether added 8,888.88 BTC to its treasury wallet as part of its Q4 2025 profit allocation.
- The purchase is part of Tether's strategy to use up to 15% of its quarterly profits for bitcoin acquisitions.
- Tether's approach allows it to diversify reserves without affecting the assets backing its stablecoin liabilities.
Top Stories
