Crypto Fear Index Hits 10, Lowest Since July 2022 — What Happens Next?

Bitcoin plunged to $93,000 today, matching extreme fear levels unseen since the depths of the 2022 bear market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10, its lowest reading since July 2022, while traders erased $617.45 million in liquidations within 24 hours as rate cut expectations collapsed.

The sell-off accelerated through Asian trading hours after Wall Street’s Friday slump left major indices down over 1.6%.

Bitcoin accounted for $242.19 million in liquidations and Ethereum for $169.06 million, with the largest single wipeout reaching $30.60 million on a Hyperliquid BTC position.

Market pricing for a December Federal Reserve rate cut plummeted to around 40% from more than 60% the previous week, pushing investors toward cash and away from risk assets.

MARKETS NOW SEE A 45.8% CHANCE OF A FED RATE CUT IN DECEMBER! pic.twitter.com/SLh86SvwSJ

— That Martini Guy ₿ (@MartiniGuyYT) November 17, 2025

Short-Term Holders Drive Capitulation

CryptoQuant analyst concluded that short-term holder capitulation dominated Bitcoin’s decline from the $126,000 peak, rather than long-term holder distribution.

STH SOPR repeatedly fell below 1, confirming active loss-taking, while spent output age bands showed coins younger than three months represented most volume during the dump.

Long-term holders increased selling since September, but the pattern remained consistent with normal mid-cycle profit-taking rather than aggressive blow-off distribution seen at cycle tops.

Despite declining prices, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap increased, indicating that fresh capital continued to enter through new short-term holders.

These inflows proved insufficient to absorb capitulation from older STH cohorts combined with ongoing LTH distribution.

The Bitcoin ETF Realized Price stood at $86,680, leaving BTC trading roughly 9% above the average cost basis of ETF buyers.

CryptoQuant analysts emphasized that marginal price pressure came from STH deleveraging and forced selling during stress periods.

“Even if LTHs sold more in total over months, markets react to marginal flows during stress,” the analysis stated.

“On dump days, leveraged STHs triggered rapid sell-offs and liquidations, creating the steepest downward momentum.”

Based on the on-chain structure, we are seeing a bull market correction rather than a cycle top reversal, despite the severity of recent losses.

ETF Outflows Intensify As Institutional Demand Cools

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded weekly outflows of $1.11 billion from November 10 to 14, marking the third consecutive week of institutional retreat.

BlackRock’s IBIT bled $532.41 million, representing the largest net outflow, while Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust logged nearly $290 million in weekly losses.

Total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $125.34 billion, representing 6.67% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

₿ US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their third consecutive week of outflows, recording $1.11 billion from November 10 to 14.#BitcoinETF #ETFOutflows #BTCPricehttps://t.co/RjSg20vVbu

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 17, 2025

Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, argued that ETF outflows don’t undermine Bitcoin treasury companies.

“A BTC ETF provides fixed exposure to Bitcoin,” he wrote, adding that ETF holdings won’t increase without fund inflows to support them.

The crypto market capitalization fell to $3.31 trillion, down 0.9% from previous levels, erasing $1.1 trillion over 41 days.

Technical Retest Meets Historical Fear Parallels

Bitcoin tested its 2025 yearly opening around $94,000-$95,000 after closing the weekly candle above that level, creating potential support following a 27% correction from $128,000 peaks.

Trader Plan C noted Bitcoin remained within a wide consolidation range from $75,000 to $126,000, with the bottom of this range marking the top of the previous range.

Meanwhile, Max Crypto observed BTC posted its first weekly close below the 50-EMA since Q3 2023, prompting some analysts to assign an 80% bear market probability if the pattern persisted through November 24.

#Bitcoin The warning no one wants to hear

Market cycles deserve nuance. Blind optimism is what traps most people at the top.

Right now, if I had to put numbers on it, I’d say 80% bear market, 20% bull market.

If next week’s close looks the same by November 24th, that’s Bear… pic.twitter.com/95vJhnaKUX

— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) November 16, 2025

The Fear Index reading of 10 matched sentiment extremes from July 2022, when Bitcoin traded between $19,000 and $20,000 during the aftermath of the Terra/Luna collapse.

Current fear levels occurring at $94,930, 4.7x higher than those 2022 lows, suggested sentiment had decoupled from price, historically marking conditions near major bottoms.

However, historical precedent from July 2022 showed Bitcoin remained depressed for several months before beginning recovery.

Michael van de Poppe outlined conditional recovery potential, stating he wanted to see Bitcoin hold $94,000 and test $100,000 within the week following the weekend low sweep.

“If that happens, then there’s trillions and trillions of short liquidity ready to be taken out,” he said.