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Bitcoin Pulls Under $68K as Crypto Markets Falter Ahead of Election
At least according to betting markets, the U.S. presidential election has moved to nearly a 50/50 race versus the outlook for an easy Trump victory just days ago.
Updated Nov 3, 2024, 12:49 p.m. Published Nov 3, 2024, 12:27 p.m.
"Markets hate uncertainty," goes an old Wall Street saw.
Just about 96 hours ago, the price of bitcoin was within a few dollars of breaking through its all-time high above $73,700, perhaps helped along by a surge in momentum for crypto-friendly GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.
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At that time, Trump's victory chances on betting market Polymarket had risen to as high as 67% (with his opponent Kamala Harris' chances dropping to a corresponding 33%).
Since, though, Trump's odds have been falling, as has the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. At one point overnight, the former president's victory chances declined to less than 53% (with Harris rising to above 47%). Alongside, bitcoin fell to as low as $67,600. At press time, during the U.S. morning hours Sunday, both Trump and bitcoin have come back a bit, with Trump sitting at 56% and bitcoin at $68,300, lower by more than 2% over the past 24 hours.
The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 2.3% over the same time frame, with Cardano and Avalance notable underperformers, each off nearly 6%.
"It's crazy how correlated bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds," wrote analyst Miles Deutscher on X.
It's crazy how correlated #Bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds.
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) November 3, 2024
Maybe it really is as simple as:
• Trump win = $BTC pump
• Kamala win = $BTC dump pic.twitter.com/8h8sUzJ0U6
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