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Bitcoin Pulls Under $68K as Crypto Markets Falter Ahead of Election
At least according to betting markets, the U.S. presidential election has moved to nearly a 50/50 race versus the outlook for an easy Trump victory just days ago.
Updated Nov 3, 2024, 12:49 p.m. Published Nov 3, 2024, 12:27 p.m.
"Markets hate uncertainty," goes an old Wall Street saw.
Just about 96 hours ago, the price of bitcoin was within a few dollars of breaking through its all-time high above $73,700, perhaps helped along by a surge in momentum for crypto-friendly GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.
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At that time, Trump's victory chances on betting market Polymarket had risen to as high as 67% (with his opponent Kamala Harris' chances dropping to a corresponding 33%).
Since, though, Trump's odds have been falling, as has the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. At one point overnight, the former president's victory chances declined to less than 53% (with Harris rising to above 47%). Alongside, bitcoin fell to as low as $67,600. At press time, during the U.S. morning hours Sunday, both Trump and bitcoin have come back a bit, with Trump sitting at 56% and bitcoin at $68,300, lower by more than 2% over the past 24 hours.
The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 2.3% over the same time frame, with Cardano and Avalance notable underperformers, each off nearly 6%.
"It's crazy how correlated bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds," wrote analyst Miles Deutscher on X.
It's crazy how correlated #Bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds.
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) November 3, 2024
Maybe it really is as simple as:
• Trump win = $BTC pump
• Kamala win = $BTC dump pic.twitter.com/8h8sUzJ0U6
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Bitcoin’s Deep Correction Sets Stage for December Rebound, Says K33 Research
K33 Research says market fear is outweighing fundamentals as bitcoin nears key levels. December could offer an entry point for bold investors.
What to know:
- K33 Research says bitcoin’s steep correction shows signs of bottoming, with December potentially marking a turning point.
- The firm has argued that the market is overreacting to long-term risks while ignoring near-term signals of strength, like low leverage and solid support levels.
- With likely policy shifts ahead and cautious positioning in futures, K33 sees more upside potential than risk of another major collapse.
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