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U.S. inflation data surprises, with CPI higher by just 2.7% in November
Bitcoin rose above $88,000 on the pleasing news as forecasts had been for inflation to continue to run above 3%.
Updated Dec 18, 2025, 4:17 p.m. Published Dec 18, 2025, 1:35 p.m.
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What to know:
- November CPI was higher by 2.7% against forecasts for 3.1%.
- The core rate fell to 2.6% versus expectations for 3%.
- Bitcoin added to early gains on the news.
U.S. inflation data surprised to the downside on Thursday, potentially setting up the economy for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts next year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7%. on a year-over-year basis in November, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economist expectations had been for a rise of 3.1% and the previous read was 3%.
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Core CPI — which excludes food and energy — rose 2.6% against forecasts for 3% and 3% previously.
Monthly data was not included as the BLS statisticians continue to suffer the effects of October's government shutdown.
Market reaction was swift. with bitcoin adding about 0.5% to earlier gains, now trading back above $88,000. U.S. stock index futures also added to earlier gains, the Nasdaq 100 now ahead by 1.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped two basis points to 4.12%.
Ahead of the data, markets were pricing in a 73% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. These softer inflation numbers though, could change that calculus and — for the moment — risk markets, crypto among them, are moving higher on the chance of easier than forecast monetary policy.
