Crypto Markets Today: Treading Cautiously, With Smaller Tokens Showing Froth

The crypto market continues to trade cautiously as it seeks fresh catalysts following the Fed rate cut. BTC has settled into a tight range, with $118,000 serving as resistance for the bulls to overcome.

Open interest in bitcoin futures has jumped to 149K BTC, ending a two-month downtrend. It indicates renewed capital inflows into futures, possibly on the bearish side, as the three-month annualized premium remains depressed below 10%.

Smaller tokens continue to gain ground, raising hopes for a full-blown altcoin season. In the past 24 hours, IMX, NEAR and HASH have gained over 10%, the only three coins out of the top 100 to enter double figures.

Timothy Misir, head of research, BRN, called traders to keep position sizes prudent.

"Institutional flows and large accumulation address activity support the bullish case; record options open interest and dense supply near $118,000 create tangible pinch points. Trade the market as it is: keep position sizes prudent, manage leverage tightly, and use $115,200 as the primary tape guardrail while watching $118,000 for a clear breakout signal," Misir said in an email.

Derivatives Positioning

by Omkar Godbole

• AVAX is the only top 20 cryptocurrency to boast an increase in perpetual futures open interest over the past 24 hours. The rest of the coins have seen flat to negative OI, a sign of capital outflows.
• According to data source Glassnode, 5,000 BTC in long positions is vulnerable to liquidation if the price drops below $117,000. There is also a build up of short positions at higher price levels, representing a sell-on-rise mentality.
• Most majors, excluding LINK, DOT and TRX, have seen net selling in futures, as evidenced by their negative 24-hour cumulative volume deltas. This indicates the possibility of a sharp drop in altcoins later today alongside a growing risk aversion on Wall Street.
• On the CME, bitcoin futures OI has bounded to 149K BTC, ending a two-month downtrend. Perhaps, fresh shorts are coming in, as the annualized three-month premium remains below 10% and looks to be trending south. Ether's futures OI has risen back above 2 million ETH.
• On Deribit, traders continue to chase put options tied to BTC in a sign of lingering downside concerns. Flows over OTC network Paradigm featured calendar spreads and put writing.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Aster, the native token of its namesake decentralized exchange, rose 33% in the past 24 hours to contribute a 650% gain since it was issued earlier this week.
• The token was touted on X by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who claims the token is a direct competitor to HyperLiquid's HYPE.
• Nearly 330,000 wallets used Aster ahead of a series of exchange listings for the token, with daily trading volume hitting $420 million.
• The platform's introduction hasn't been without controversy, one of the Aster team members had to say "funds are safe" on Discord in response to concerns about whether funds could be withdrawn.
• It is also claimed that Aster is just a rebrand of Apollox, a decentralized perpetuals exchange that has been around for years.
• Nonetheless, the platform has proven attractive in the past 24 hours and is considered by some traders as a viable alternative to HyperLiquid, whose token has a market cap of $18.7 billion compared with Aster's $1 billion.