Ether's Mayer Multiple Surges; XRP May Be Primed for Huge Gains vs BTC

This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

XRP: Rally against BTC has likely just begun

XRP's XRP$1.9114 dollar-denominated prices have surged nearly 60% to new lifetime highs above $3.50 this month. However, against bitcoin BTC$87,418.95, it appears to be on the verge of kickstarting a significant bull run, as evident from the chart below, which shows the prices for the Binance-listed XRP/BTC ratio.

As of writing, the ratio was probing the upper end of the four-year-long sideways channel that began in early 2021.

Much like coiled springs, sideways channels are periods of energy accumulation. This pent-up energy is eventually unleashed in a powerful directional move; typically, the longer the consolidation, the more substantial the eventual breakout.

Thus, a breakout in the XRP/BTC ratio could mean significant gains for XRP relative to bitcoin.

Supporting the bull case is the Guppy multiple moving average indicator, which has flipped bullish for the first time since 2018. The bullish signal is identified by the short-term EMA band (white) crossing above the long-term ones (red).

XRP/USD : Golden cross is here

XRP looks set for a continued run higher, having defended the support of the January high of $3.39 over the weekend in a classic "breakout and re-test play." Markets tend to revisit resistance-turned-support to test dip demand and commitment of bulls before staging bigger rallies.

Momentum looks stronger than ever with the bullish golden cross, marked by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) shifting above the 200-day SMA, while prices are already at record highs. Friday's high of $3.66 is the immediate resistance, followed by $4.00. Below $3.35, the risk of an extended pullback would increase.

• AI's take: Given that XRP/BTC is at the "upper end of a four-year-long sideways channel," this suggests a major, long-term breakout could be imminent. For such a significant event, many traders would lean towards waiting for clear confirmation (e.g., a strong daily or even weekly close above the channel resistance, potentially with high volume) rather than jumping in prematurely.
• Resistance: $3.66, $4.
• Support: $3.35, $3, $2.65.

Ether: Mayer multiple takes out December high

Ether's ETH$2,901.54 rally continues, with the 50-day SMA rising to its highest level since March and the 100-day SMA poised to cross above the 200-day SMA in a bullish manner. There is little to no sign of bears looking to reassert themselves, as evident from the small upper wicks attached to most daily candles since July 13.

The Mayer multiple, which gauges the ratio between the spot price and the 200-day SMA to show case momentum, has already crossed the December high to hit its highest since March 2024. Perhaps, it's only a matter of time before prices do the same, topping the December high of $4,109.

On the way higher, prices may consolidate near $4,000, thanks to the significant positive dealer gamma at that level in the Deribit-listed options market. Dealers typically trade against the market direction in such situations to maintain a net neutral exposure, curbing volatility.

On the downside, $3,480 is the key support. A break below the same would invalidate the bullish higher lows pattern.

AI's take: The Mayer Multiple suggests strong underlying momentum. This indicator's higher reading signals ETH is building bullish strength relative to its long-term average, hinting at potential for future price appreciation.

Resistance: $4,000, $4,109, $4,382.

Support: $3,480, $3,081, $2,879.

Bitcoin: Averages signal weak momentum

Bitcoin's price continues to crisscross the 50-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, with the three averages now flat-lined in a narrow range, signaling that the upside momentum has weakened. This makes BTC vulnerable to potential risk-off in traditional markets and the ongoing recovery in the dollar index.

A potential failure to hold above the Asian session low of $116,539 would reinforce the bull exhaustion, strengthening the case for a deeper drop to $111,965, the May high. Conversely, a move above $120,000 could bring fresh highs, although prices have consistently failed to establish a foothold above that level since July 14.

• AI's take: The most prudent approach for many is to wait for Bitcoin to break decisively out of this consolidation phase (either above or below the flat-lined SMAs) with significant volume.
• Resistance: $120,000, $123,181.
• Support: $116,539, $115,739, $111,965.

Solana: Tops key resistance

Solana's SOL token has topped resistance at around $185 as expected. Further gains appear likely as the MACD histogram prints larger bars above the zero line and the 14-day RSI surpasses 70, both signaling a strengthening of the upward momentum. The Mayer multiple has risen to the highest since January.

A failure to hold above $177 would raise the risk of a deeper price drop.

• AI's take: Be mindful that an RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions, so a brief consolidation or pullback isn't uncommon before further ascent.
• Resistance: $200, $218, $252-$264
• Support: $185, $168, $157.