Is XRP Recharting The 2017 Mega Bull Run?

This is a daily analysis of top tokens with CME futures by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

XRP: Is it 2017 all over again?

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes," American writer Mark Twain said. The enduring adage suggests recurring patterns and themes throughout history, rather than exact replicas of past events, and applies to the ongoing bull market in XRP XRP$1.8845.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency hit lifetime highs above $3.5 early Friday, extending the ascent that began in November following a breakout from a multi-year symmetrical triangle or price squeeze. Since 2018, XRP's price had been coiled tightly within a symmetrical triangle, much like a spring storing energy.

The pattern eerily mirrors price action observed a decade ago, when prices consolidated in a symmetrical triangle for years, setting the stage for a humongous rally in 2017.

XRP picked up a strong bid at $0.00056 and broke out of the multi-year triangle in March 2017, eventually rallying to a high of $3.3 by early January 2018. Thats a staggering several thousand percent surge in ten months.

Intriguingly, XRP's price action from the bear market of 2018 to the present day appears to be an almost exact replay of that historical pattern, as the 580% surge from the early November follows a multi-year squeeze in the symmetrical triangle.

In other words, if the history continues to rhyme, XRP could see bigger gains in the months ahead, potentially matching the powerful bull run of 2017.

Short-term outlook: Bull breather likely

With XRP's recent sharp move higher, Bollinger bands, or volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average, have widened to the highest since December. The spread between the bands has reached levels that have historically marked an onset of broad rangeplay.

Additionally, momentum indicators such as the MACD histogram, have flipped bearish on shorter duration time frames alongside RSI turning lower from overbought, or above 70 levels, to signal correction.

Therefore, XRP could consolidate in a broad range before chalking out the next leg higher.

• AI's take: XRP's sharp rally has stretched its Bollinger Bands to multi-month highs, suggesting volatility could lead to a broad trading range next. While momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI are flipping bearish on shorter timeframes, signaling a potential correction, this wider range could allow for profit-taking or consolidation before the next major move.
• Resistance: Record highs
• Support: $3.4, $3, $2.9

Bitcoin: $120K resistance holds

Since Monday, Bitcoin BTC$88,231.57 has failed at least three times to establish a foothold above $120,000, leaving multiple candles with long upper wicks on the daily chart. That signifies bullish exhaustion. The crisscross price moves around the 50- and 100-hour SMAs also suggest the same. This, coupled with the 14-day RSI rolling over from the overbought zone, indicates scope for price pullback.

Its common for markets to revisit key breakout points before staging bigger rallies, meaning prices could revisit the May high (former record high) of $111,965.

• AI's take: The recent price action suggests that BTC needs to consolidate or find fresh momentum before attempting another sustained push higher.
• Resistance: $123,181, $130,000, $140,000.
• Support: $117,500, $115,740, $111,965.

Ether: To outperform BTC

Ether's ETH$2,957.06 hourly chart shows a bearish divergence of the RSI. That, coupled with pullback risks in market leader bitcoin, suggests potential for price losses in ETH. That said, the ether-bitcoin ratio seems headed for a bullish golden cross of the 50- and 200-day SMAs. Ether, therefore, could continue to outperform BTC. Moreover, ETH's hourly chart averages continue to trend north, indicating a bullish set up to suggest that price pullbacks, if any, could be short-lived and the overall trajectory favors a move to $4,000.

• AI's take: Ether's stronger long-term bullish setup against BTC (golden cross) and trending hourly averages suggest any dips will be brief.
• Resistance: $4,000, $4,100, $4300.
• Support: $3,420, $3083, $3,000.

Solana: May highs in focus

Here's a refined version, making it more concise and impactful:

Solana's SOL SOL$123.66 climb has temporarily stalled at the $185-$187 resistance range, last seen in May. However, with the Guppy momentum indicator recently turning bullish and prices holding comfortably above the Ichimoku cloud, it looks like it's only a matter of time before this resistance flips into solid support. Volatility could pick up soon as the indicator measuring the spread between Bollinger bands bounces of long-held support. A potential cross below the Ichimoku cloud on the hourly would increase the risk of a deeper pullback.

• AI's take: Expect volatility to pick up, and while a push to $200 is likely, watch for any hourly break below the Ichimoku Cloud as a warning for deeper pullbacks.
• Resistance: $187, $200, $218.
• Support: $168, $157, $145.