Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Reclaims $100K as Markets Shrug Off Iran Strike

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Asia begins the trading week, bitcoin {{BTC}} is trading above $100,500 as the initial volatility from news over the weekend that the U.S. struck some of Iran's nuclear facilities begins to subside.

While prices briefly dipped below six figures on Sunday in a risk-off reaction, markets have since stabilized. Equity futures are flat, and gold is up only marginally, suggesting that traders are not yet pricing in a broader escalation.

The lack of follow-through in traditional markets may reflect expectations that Iran’s response will be contained or delayed, rather than immediate and destabilizing.

Crude oil is holding its gains near $76 per barrel after spiking nearly 4% Sunday evening on fears that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. Still, commentary from U.S. officials and muted early-week trading suggest that investors remain in a wait-and-see mode.

In crypto markets, altcoins that had mirrored BTC’s weekend drop, like ether ETH$3,217.93, XRP XRP$2.3333, and solana's SOL SOL$137.66, are also clawing back losses.

For now, the market appears to be treating the U.S.-Iran clash as a geopolitical flashpoint, not a structural break.

OKX Considering U.S. IPO: Report

Crypto exchange OKX is considering a public listing in the U.S., according to a report from The Information.

Earlier this year, the exchange announced a U.S. expansion after settling with the Department of Justice over accusations that it operated in the country without a money transmitter license.

Among other crypto-linked companies, Bullish, a competitor to OKX and the parent company of CoinDesk, is also said to be considering an IPO given investors' appetite for companies with exposure to digital assets.

OKX told CoinDesk it had no comment on the matter.

Polymarket Bettors Less Certain About Second U.S. Strike on Iran

Polymarket bettors are cooling to the idea that the U.S will hit Iran a second time before the end of the month.

The 'yes' side of a contract asking if the U.S. will conduct another military action on Iran by June 30 is now trading at 54%, from 74% in the hours after the initial strike on Iranian nuclear sites.

There appears to be a growing market belief that deconfliction – on both sides – is on the agenda, as evidenced by another contract asking bettors about the likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently trading at 49% down from 52%.

Market Movements:

• BTC: Bitcoin rebounded to $101,419 after a volatile 4.5% intraday swing, finding strong support at $99,000 amid geopolitical tensions and surging institutional buying interest, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data.
• ETH: Ethereum fell 2.3% to $2,237 amid U.S.-Iran tensions, breaking a six-week consolidation pattern despite over $500 million in institutional accumulation.
• Gold: Bank of America analysts predict gold could hit $4,000 an ounce within a year, an 18% jump, driven less by geopolitical tensions and more by mounting U.S. fiscal debt and a global shift by central banks away from the dollar toward gold.
• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites fueled oil price spikes and fears of broader Middle East escalation, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.56%.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Texas Governor Greg Abbott signs strategic Bitcoin reserve bill into law (The Block)
• Which Crypto IPOs Could Be Next Following Circle? (Decrypt)
• What Are Savvy Bitcoin and Ether Traders Preparing For as Summer Approaches? (CoinDesk)