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The Probability of Iran Blocking Strait of Hormuz Surges to 52% On Polymarket After Trump's Air Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facility
BTC held above $100K, continuing its boring multi-week rangeplay.
Updated Jun 22, 2025, 3:15 p.m. Published Jun 22, 2025, 5:43 a.m.
What to know:
- The likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased following U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities, according to Polymarket.
- The probability of the Strait's closure by June 30 has risen to 40%, with a 52% chance by the end of the year.
- A closure could cause oil prices to spike to $120-$130 per barrel, potentially leading to stagflation.
- BTC held above $100K, continuing its boring multi-week rangeplay.
The probability of Iran's leadership blocking the Strait of Hormuz for shipping has increased following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
At press time, shares of the Yes side of the Polymarket-listed contract "Will Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz before June 30 traded at 40 cents, representing a 40% probability. That's a notable increase from 14% on Saturday. Meanwhile, the odds of the event occurring by the end of the year increased to 52%, up from 33% the previous day.
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Approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for around 20% of the world's oil consumption, according to the Middle East Forum Observer. Therefore, the potential closure of the Hormuz could trigger a sustained oil price shock.
According to JPMorgan's analysts, shutting the Strait of Hormuz could catapult crude oil prices to an eye-popping $120 to $130 per barrel.
Such a spike in oil prices, coupled with the ongoing trade war, could lead to stagflation – the worst outcome for financial assets, including cryptocurrencies.
As of writing, the cryptocurrency market has not shown any signs of panic, with bitcoin continuing to trade above $100,000, per CoinDesk data.
President Donald Trump confirmed airstrikes Saturday evening, saying the attack obliterated three critical Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, calling "the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace."
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