XRP could outperform bitcoin as XRP/BTC chart shows rare Ichimoku breakout since 2018

XRP slid to $2.27 after breaking below $2.32 support, but a high-volume flush into $2.21 drew bids and stabilized the move — leaving traders focused on whether the bounce can reclaim $2.31-$2.32 or if the market remains stuck in a descending channel.

News background

XRP traders are weighing a short-term breakdown in spot price against a longer-term bullish setup on the XRP/BTC ratio.

Chartist “The Great Mattsby” said XRP/BTC is close to breaking above the monthly Ichimoku cloud for the first time since 2018, a shift that historically signals XRP is positioned to outperform bitcoin if confirmed. The setup is drawing attention as cross-asset rotation narratives start to re-emerge early in the year, even as spot markets stay sensitive to liquidity pockets and stop-driven moves.

The Ichimoku cloud, developed by a Japanese journalist in the 1960s, is used to identify support and resistance, momentum, and trend change in price actions. Crossovers above the cloud signal bullish momentum shifts, while those below signal bearish shifts.

That relative-strength framing matters because XRP’s latest selloff came with evidence of forced selling rather than a slow bleed — the kind of move that often resets positioning and sets up a cleaner technical base if buyers can hold key levels.

Technical analysis

XRP fell 5% over the 24-hour period ending Jan. 7 at 02:00, dropping from $2.39 to $2.27 after losing $2.32 support and extending a descending channel that has capped recent rebounds.

The key event came at 16:00 on Jan. 6, when volume surged to 256.3 million (142% above the 24-hour SMA) and price printed the session low at $2.21. That spike behaved like a capitulation-style flush: aggressive selling hit the tape, but follow-through failed to push the market materially below $2.21, implying demand absorbed the move.

From there, XRP attempted to recover but stalled near $2.31, reinforcing that zone — along with the broken $2.32 level — as the first meaningful resistance band. The inability to reclaim that range keeps the near-term structure bearish, even as the market shows signs of stabilizing after the high-volume low.

Short-term action suggests the base is trying to form. The 60-minute structure showed multiple defenses of the $2.258-$2.260 area, with higher lows developing after the 01:33 low at $2.257. Buying volume concentrated on pushes higher, while pullbacks came on lighter activity — a constructive look, but still inside a broader downtrend until $2.31-$2.32 is reclaimed.

Price action summary

• XRP fell from $2.39 to $2.27, breaking below $2.32 support
• The session low printed at $2.21 during a 256.3M volume surge (142% above average)
• Recovery attempts have repeatedly stalled near $2.31, keeping the descending channel intact
• Intraday stabilization formed around $2.258-$2.260, with buyers defending the range multiple times

What traders should know

The trade is clean right now: $2.21 is the line, and $2.31-$2.32 is the gate.

• If $2.21 holds and XRP can reclaim $2.31-$2.32, the move starts to look like a high-volume shakeout followed by a trend resumption attempt — opening the path back toward $2.39, where overhead supply from the breakdown sits.
• If $2.21 fails, the capitulation low stops being a floor and turns into a trigger. That would likely invite another wave of liquidation-style selling into the next demand pocket (which traders will typically map using prior consolidation zones and market structure rather than a single indicator).

The other layer to watch is XRP/BTC: the monthly Ichimoku setup getting circulated by Mattsby is a relative-strength signal, not a spot-price guarantee — but if XRP/BTC confirms the breakout, it increases the odds that dips in XRP are bought more aggressively than dips in bitcoin, especially during risk-on rotation windows.