Solana is a high-throughput blockchain for decentralized applications.

Solana

SOL Rank #7
Market Signal
Bullish

30D +41.7% 64.8% below ATH

Price-based current market conditions indicator with 100 percent data coverage. This is not a price forecast.
$103.72
Updated Data via CoinMarketCap
Market cap
$60.69B
Layer 1 Dominance
2.7%
Volume (24h)
$2.85B
Supply
585.2M
FDV
$65.68B

Solana price chart

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Solana price prediction

See how Solana could move across bullish, bearish and black swan scenarios, with the evidence behind each range.

Published automatically
Reference close
$103.00
Median terminal price
$109
Target date
SOL prediction range

30-day price prediction

Actual Forecast median 50% 80% 95%
Solana price history and 30-day prediction distribution Actual daily closes run from $71.87 on Aug 1, 2026 to the $103.00 reference close on Aug 31, 2026. The projected median and 50%, 80% and 95% predictive bands then extend to Sep 30, 2026; exact terminal scenarios are listed beside the chart.
Actual daily closes run from $71.87 on Aug 1, 2026 to the $103.00 reference close on Aug 31, 2026. The projected median and 50%, 80% and 95% predictive bands then extend to Sep 30, 2026; exact terminal scenarios are listed beside the chart.
Explainable methodology

How this price prediction is built

CryptoSlate uses historical Solana price data and statistical models to estimate a range of possible future prices. The models account for both normal market movements and unusually large price swings, then test how well their predictions perform on past data. The forecast shows possible scenarios, rather than a guarantee or investment recommendation. An additional stress model estimates the potential impact of an extreme downturn.

Technical Details

The forecast combines a horizon-aware, drift-shrunk Student-t GARCH model, filtered historical simulation, and regularized quantile regression. Nonnegative model weights are learned from earlier Monday-UTC forecast dates without using future data. A 52-week embargo separates training from testing, followed by 10 held-out forecasts spaced 371 days apart. Performance is measured using CRPS and coverage diagnostics against a stronger predeclared simple baseline. An EVT model extends the downside tail for the black-swan stress scenario. Polymarket has zero weight in forecast.v1.

Price data CoinMarketCap, CryptoSlate

  • Volatility baseline Models changing volatility and heavy-tailed returns with a Student-t GARCH process. 0.0% ensemble weight
  • Historical simulation Replays filtered historical shocks to preserve non-normal moves without looking ahead. 100.0% ensemble weight
  • Quantile estimates Uses regularized predictors to estimate the terminal distribution at multiple percentiles. 0.0% ensemble weight
Model sensitivities
  • 30-day price momentum

    Momentum shifts the regularized quantile component while shrinkage limits extrapolation.

  • Volatility and fat tails

    Higher conditional volatility widens both upside and downside predictive bands.

  • Fixed-time prediction markets

    The first release retains a zero-weight boundary until historical overlay validation is available.

Risks and limitations
  • Past market behavior may not represent a new market structure or regulatory shock.

  • The forecast targets one UTC terminal price and does not predict the full intraday path.

  • Actual prices can finish outside every displayed interval.

  • Non-overlapping labels reduce mechanical overlap, but regime dependence can persist and manual review remains required.

Validation evidence
  • Backtest origins

    An origin is a historical date when the model is tested as if it were issuing a live forecast.

    Public raw backtest origins are fixed to Monday UTC to prevent schedule shopping, meaning results cannot be improved by choosing unusually favorable start dates. This horizon requires at least 1,534 continuous daily candles, including up to six days of weekday-alignment slack.

  • Calibration and holdout

    Calibration origins are earlier forecasts used to choose the ensemble weights. Held-out origins are kept separate and used only to evaluate the chosen model.

    This run used 72 weekly calibration origins and compared weight selection with filtered historical simulation. An embargo then skipped 4 weekly dates, creating a deliberate gap before evaluation.

    The final 20 held-out origins were issued 35 days apart across a 96-position validation span so their 30-day outcomes do not overlap.

  • CRPS and confidence

    CRPS stands for Continuous Ranked Probability Score. It measures the accuracy of the full probability forecast rather than a single price target; lower is better because it rewards both an accurate center and honest uncertainty bands.

    The held-out point edge against the strongest simple baseline was 0.0%. The minimum one-sided 95% paired lower bound was -1.7%; this conservative check asks whether the measured advantage remains above zero after accounting for sample variation.

    The monitoring target is a point edge of at least 2% and a positive lower bound against both GARCH and filtered historical simulation. These regime-dependent diagnostics remain advisory and do not interrupt publication.

  • Simulation and reproducibility

    A simulation path is one plausible 30-day price journey drawn by the model.

    The published run used 2,000 paths for the displayed distribution and 2,000 paths at each backtest origin.

    RNG seed 478,964,223,554,611,328 fixes the random-number stream so an identical run can be reproduced. It is deterministically derived from the frozen forecast.v1 production salt, horizon, asset ID, and modeled reference-close timestamp; candles, provenance, and market inputs do not select the random stream. The modeled reference close is timestamped 2026-08-31T23:59:59Z.

  • Prediction-market overlay

    No quality-qualified Polymarket evidence contributed to this forecast, so prediction-market prices did not move the published distribution.

Terminal scenarios

What the distribution implies

  • Bullish scenario 29.5%
    $133 $123 to $149 corridor

    The bullish scenario is the model P80 terminal estimate, with its P70-P90 corridor shown as a range.

  • Bearish scenario 13.2%
    $89.35 $80.09 to $96.16 corridor

    The bearish scenario is the model P20 terminal estimate, with its P10-P30 corridor shown as a range.

  • Black swan stress 55.6%
    $45.72 Extreme-tail stress marker; not a precise probability claim

    This stressed downside marker extends the fitted loss tail beyond ordinary simulations and should not be read as a precise probability forecast.

    Stress assumptions
    • Downside shock A clustered downside shock exceeds the model ordinary volatility regime.
    • Liquidity stress Liquidity deteriorates while forced selling amplifies the daily tail loss.
    • Tail extension The figure is an EVT stress extension, not a stated one-percent event probability.
Accountability

Published prediction history

Snapshots remain immutable so readers can inspect exactly what CryptoSlate published at each forecast date.

PublishedTarget dateMedian80% rangeStatus
$106$77.28–$146Target pending
$111$81.70–$152Target pending
$109$78.95–$153Target pending
$115$82.68–$160Target pending
$107$78.46–$149Target pending

Probabilistic scenario analysis, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.

Market Signal analysis

Why Solana is bullish

Bullish 71 100% data coverage

Price momentum across the scored timeframes supports the reading. The available evidence produces a bullish reading rather than a price forecast.

Score drivers

Momentum 55% weight +13 pts
Historical position 20% weight +7 pts
Milestone recency 15% weight +2 pts
Volume confirmation 10% weight 0 pts

Historical position

Log scale · formula input

Momentum evidence

24H
Up 2.28%
7D
Up 2.26%
30D
Up 41.72%
Highest weight
90D
Up 41.57%
1Y
Down 48.93%

Market context

Not directly scored
CEX volume (24h)
$2.85B
DEX volume (24h)
$32.91K
Total supply
633.27M
How this score is calculated Model v1.0 · Current conditions, not a forecast.

What it measures

The model converts price momentum, logarithmic historical position, milestone recency, and short-term volume confirmation into one 0–100 score. Missing evidence lowers data coverage instead of counting as neutral.

Configured model weights

Momentum
55% weight
Historical position
20% weight
Milestone recency
15% weight
Volume confirmation
10% weight

When inputs are missing, these configured weights are renormalized across the available evidence; data coverage records what is missing.

How to read it

50 is the neutral midpoint. Scores of 60 or higher are bullish, 40 or lower are bearish, and 41–59 are neutral.

Solana Markets

Loading market data Updated

Showing 10 spot markets sorted by CoinMarketCap exchange rank. Markets excluded from CMC price or volume calculations are hidden.

Pair
1 SOL/USDT $103.62 $209.61M 845
2 SOL/USDC $103.61 $41.63M 782
3 SOL/USD $103.62 $109.24M 766
4 SOL/KRW $104.07 $21.13M 577
5 SOL/USDT $103.63 $90.96M 734
6 SOL/USDT $103.73 $74.99M 615
7 SOL/USDT $103.76 $67.24M 766
8 SOL/USDT $103.61 Best price $93.17M 750
9 SOL/USDT $103.63 $22.69M 675
10 SOL/USDT $103.65 $65.62M 750

Affiliate Disclaimer: CryptoSlate may receive a commission when you click trading links on this page and complete an action with a third party. This does not influence our editorial independence or coverage.

Latest Solana news

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About Solana

Solana is a Layer 1 blockchain built for high-throughput applications that need low transaction costs and fast settlement. SOL is the network's native asset. It is used to pay transaction fees, delegate stake to validators, and support activity across Solana applications, including decentralized finance, payments, NFTs, gaming, trading, and consumer apps.

Solana's design combines proof-of-stake validation with Proof of History, a timing and ordering system that verifies the order and passage of time between events. That distinction matters. Proof of History is not a standalone replacement for consensus — it works alongside validator voting to reduce coordination overhead and help the network process transactions efficiently.

Solana is often compared with Ethereum and other smart-contract networks, but its architecture takes a different path. Rather than relying primarily on a base layer plus many external scaling layers, Solana aims to support high activity on a single base layer. That makes validator performance, client diversity, fee-market behavior, and network reliability central to SOL's long-term risk profile.

For price-focused users, the most important Solana signals are network activity, stablecoin liquidity, DeFi usage, transaction fees, validator participation, and the broader market cycle for Layer 1 assets. For longer-term research, the key question is whether Solana can keep supporting high-volume applications while improving reliability and maintaining credible decentralization.

Key Facts

FieldDetail
AssetSolana
TickerSOL
Asset TypeNative Layer 1 blockchain asset
LaunchMainnet Beta launched in March 2020
Founder or OrganizationAnatoly Yakovenko, Solana Labs, and Solana Foundation
ConsensusProof-of-stake validators with Proof of History for ordering and timing
MineableNo
Max SupplyNo fixed maximum supply
Circulating Supply585.21M
Total Supply633.27M
Main Use CasesTransaction fees, staking, DeFi, payments, NFTs, gaming, trading, and consumer apps
WebsiteSolana.com
ExplorerSolana Explorer
Whitepaper“Solana: A New Architecture for a High Performance Blockchain”
Main Risk AreasNetwork reliability, validator and stake concentration, client diversity, smart-contract risk, inflation, regulatory uncertainty, and crypto market volatility

Solana Labs traces its origins to 2017, when Anatoly Yakovenko began exploring a cryptographic time source for blockchains. The company was established in 2018, and Solana Mainnet Beta launched in March 2020.

How Solana Works

Solana validators process transactions, vote on blocks, and help maintain the blockchain. SOL holders can delegate tokens to validators, with staking rewards affected by the inflation rate, the amount of SOL staked, validator uptime, and validator commission.

Every Solana transaction pays a fee in SOL. The base fee is 5,000 lamports per signature and is split between a 50% burn and a 50% payment to the validator. Users can also add a prioritization fee, which goes fully to the validator and can improve a transaction's scheduling priority during busy periods.

Solana's Proof of History system gives validators a verifiable sequence of time and transaction ordering. PoH encodes the passage of time into the ledger, while proof-of-stake validators still provide voting and consensus.

This structure is why raw Solana throughput numbers need context. Raw transactions per second can be inflated by validator vote transactions, so non-vote transactions, fees, compute usage, success rate, and application activity are better indicators of end-user demand.

Tokenomics, Supply, and Distribution

Solana does not have a fixed maximum supply. SOL issuance follows an inflation schedule that started at 8% annually, decreases by 15% year over year, and targets a long-term fixed inflation rate of 1.5%.

On Apr. 28, 2026, Solana's current inflation rate was 3.877%, with 625,308,657 SOL in total supply, 575,970,284 SOL in circulating supply, and 427,223,450.3 SOL staked, equal to 68.3% of total supply. These figures change over time and should be refreshed when the page is updated.

Supply MetricDetail
Circulating Supply585.21M
Total Supply633.27M
Max SupplyNo fixed cap
Fully Diluted Valuation$65.68B
Emissions or IssuanceInflation schedule with a long-term 1.5% target
Burns50% of Solana’s base transaction fee is burned
StakingSOL can be delegated to validators for staking rewards
UnlocksLocked stake accounts may have separate unlock schedules

Solana's supply model makes staking and network fees important. Inflation funds staking rewards, while the burned portion of base transaction fees partially offsets new issuance. For SOL holders, the practical impact depends on staking participation, fee volume, validator economics, and the balance between new issuance and burned fees.

Network, Protocol, and Ecosystem Context

Solana is used to pay for network activity, secure the validator set through staking, and support applications that rely on frequent transactions. Its ecosystem includes DeFi protocols, decentralized exchanges, perpetuals venues, NFT markets, gaming tools, payments, wallets, and consumer-facing apps.

On Apr. 28, 2026, Solana DeFi total value locked was $5.49 billion, with $15.445 billion in stablecoin market cap, $1.402 billion in 24-hour DEX volume, $874.7 million in 24-hour perps volume, 2.37 million 24-hour active addresses, and 79.96 million 24-hour transactions. These are live ecosystem indicators, not fixed fundamentals.

Context ItemWhat to Watch
Network ActivityNon-vote transactions, active addresses, fees, success rate, and compute usage
Security ModelValidator participation, stake distribution, client diversity, and uptime
EcosystemDeFi, stablecoins, DEX volume, payments, NFTs, gaming, and consumer apps
Supply MechanicsInflation, staking rewards, fee burn, and locked stake movements
ReliabilityStatus updates, postmortems, congestion behavior, and restart history

Solana's validator footprint includes 5,158 total nodes, a Nakamoto coefficient of 20, 46 countries, 201 cities, and 487 data centers. That footprint is material, but stake distribution remains one of the key areas to monitor because a proof-of-stake network's resilience depends on how stake and validator responsibility are distributed.

Risks and What to Watch

Solana's biggest asset-specific risk is network reliability. The official Solana status page showed Mainnet Beta operational with 100% uptime over the prior 90 days at the time of this update, but Solana's history includes major outages. On Feb. 6, 2024, Mainnet Beta block finalization halted at 09:53 UTC and resumed at 14:55 UTC, with the outage attributed to a legacy loader and JIT cache bug that led to an infinite recompile loop.

Validator concentration and client diversity are also important. Solana's validator set is geographically broad, but a proof-of-stake network can still face concentration risk if too much stake is controlled by a small group of validators, exchanges, or infrastructure providers.

Application-level risk is separate from network-level risk. DeFi protocols, wallets, NFTs, games, and trading applications on Solana may carry smart-contract, custody, liquidity, oracle, and user-interface risks even when the base network is operational.

SOL also carries token and market risks. It has no fixed supply cap, staking rewards come from inflation, and SOL's market price can be affected by broader crypto liquidity, regulation, exchange access, and demand for Solana-based applications.

Solana Price Prediction and Market Outlook

Solana price prediction depends on network usage, DeFi and stablecoin liquidity, transaction fees, validator economics, app adoption, and broader market demand for high-throughput Layer 1 networks. The most useful market signals are not just raw transactions per second, but non-vote activity, fees, stablecoin flows, active addresses, DEX volume, and whether the network remains reliable during high-demand periods.

Solana Technical Details

Consensus Proof of Stake (PoS)
Circulating Supply 585,207,155
Total Supply 633,267,584

Solana FAQs

Solana FAQ

What Is Solana?

Solana is a Layer 1 blockchain designed for high-throughput, low-cost applications. SOL is the network’s native asset and is used for transaction fees, staking, validator incentives, and activity across Solana applications.

How Does Solana Work?

Solana uses proof-of-stake validators and a timing system called Proof of History. Validators process transactions and vote on blocks, while Proof of History helps establish a verifiable order of events across the ledger.

What Is SOL Used For?

SOL is used to pay Solana transaction fees, delegate stake to validators, and participate in Solana-based applications. It is also traded across centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges, and other crypto markets.

Is Solana Proof-of-Stake?

Yes. Solana uses proof-of-stake validators. Proof of History is better understood as Solana’s timing and ordering mechanism, not as a standalone consensus replacement.

Does Solana Have a Max Supply?

No. Solana has no fixed maximum supply. SOL issuance follows an inflation schedule that started at 8% annually, declines by 15% year over year, and targets a long-term inflation rate of 1.5%.

Why Are Solana Fees Low?

Solana’s architecture is designed to process high transaction volumes on the base layer. Each transaction pays a base fee in SOL, and users can add a priority fee when they want better scheduling priority during congestion.

Has Solana Had Outages?

Yes. Solana has experienced major reliability incidents, including a Feb. 6, 2024 Mainnet Beta outage that lasted about five hours. Network reliability, status reports, client diversity, and validator coordination remain important areas to monitor.

Is Solana a Good Investment?

CryptoSlate does not provide investment advice. Solana may interest users because of its low-fee, high-activity ecosystem, but SOL also carries network reliability, validator concentration, inflation, smart-contract, regulatory, and market volatility risks.

Which Network Supports SOL?

SOL is the native asset of the Solana blockchain. Wrapped or synthetic versions may exist on other networks, but users should treat those as separate representations and always match the correct network before depositing or withdrawing.

Solana Market Data

What is the price of Solana today?

As of Sep 1, 2026, Solana trades at $103.72.

What is the market cap of Solana?

Solana has a market capitalization of $60,694,760,858.80.

What is the 24-hour trading volume of Solana?

Solana has a 24-hour trading volume of $2,847,343,281.12.

What is the all-time high of Solana?

Solana reached an all-time high of $294.33, recorded on Jan 19, 2025. It is currently 64.76% below its all-time high.

What is the all-time low of Solana?

Solana recorded an all-time low of $0.51, recorded on May 11, 2020. It is currently 20.43 thousand percent above its all-time low.

Solana Organization and Team

Development

Solana Labs is the core technology company behind the Solana high performance layer 1 blockchain.

  • Founded 2018

Team members

4 profiles

Greg Fitzgerald

CTO

Raj Gokal

COO

Eric Williams, PhD

Chief Scientist