Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?
Current odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile prediction market at 14.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jul 15, 2026 7:57 pm.
What could move the odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect the reported prediction-market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
Pricing reads less like a live Iran deadline bet and more like residual settlement/ambiguity value after the March 31 rule deadline passed.
IAEA and AP context indicate uranium surrender remained an unresolved demand after the rule deadline, which weakens a Yes interpretation under the stated criteria.
What could reprice it
A future Polymarket resolution notice, IAEA access update, or official U.S.-Iran deal text could move prices if it clarifies whether any pre-deadline agreement existed.
Post-deadline diplomacy may affect narrative, but settlement should hinge on public agreement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Where the market may be weak
The listed 2026 timeframes conflict with a March 31 resolution criterion, creating a binary wording trap despite notable volume and liquidity.
Depth can mask rules risk: later-date Yes prices may reflect interface framing or residual dispute value rather than a live path to qualifying events.
Counter-signal
The market price may be too low if traders uncover an official Iranian public commitment before the deadline that was missed by mainstream coverage.
This is a documentation risk, not a diplomacy forecast; a qualifying pre-deadline statement could override later evidence of unresolved verification.
AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
-
- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
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Frequently asked questions
What are the current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Polymarket reports Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds with December 31 at 14.5%, October 31 at 8.5%, August 31 at 5.4%, and July 31 at 0.9%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $17.34M volume, $269.26K liquidity, and $549.34K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Jul 15, 2026, 18:57 UTC.
What could move the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market odds?
Pricing reads less like a live Iran deadline bet and more like residual settlement/ambiguity value after the March 31 rule deadline passed. IAEA and AP context indicate uranium surrender remained an unresolved demand after the rule deadline, which weakens a Yes interpretation under the stated criteria. Catalysts to watch include Polymarket resolution or clarification, Resolution notice or official deal text, and Archived official statement surfaces.
How does the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
