US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?
This market has ended
Explore similar open prediction markets in Politics.
Presidential Election Winner 2028 
Next French Presidential Election 
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by…? 12 more outcomes Listed by current odds
Current US x Iran permanent peace deal by… odds summary
June 15 currently leads the US x Iran permanent peace deal by… prediction market at 100% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 18, 2026 1:53 am.
What could move US x Iran permanent peace deal by… odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect reported US x Iran permanent peace deal by… prediction market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
Pricing implies the market treats a qualifying US-Iran permanent peace deal as effectively already satisfied or procedurally inevitable across all listed dates.
Because every timeframe is shown at $1, interpretation depends less on diplomacy forecasts and more on whether Polymarket has already deemed the condition met or is near resolution.
What could reprice it
The next material catalyst is not ordinary negotiation news but an official resolution action or clarifying statement on what counts as a permanent peace deal.
A formal market-resolution notice, credible treaty announcement, or official US/Iran statement could change whether $1 pricing is treated as final or contestable.
Where the market may be weak
The wording is broad: “permanent peace deal” lacks a precise legal test, creating room for disputes between ceasefires, statements, treaties, and normalization steps.
High visible depth does not remove interpretive risk if settlement turns on subjective classification rather than a named document or official registry.
Counter-signal
A serious counter is that diplomatic durability is hard to verify; even a major de-escalation may fall short of a permanent peace deal under strict resolution review.
If no binding, mutually acknowledged agreement exists by the relevant deadline, market pricing could be overstating the chance that headlines satisfy the contract.
AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by… prediction market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
-
- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Related Iran markets
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? 
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? 
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? 
US x Iran permanent peace deal by… prediction market FAQ
What are the current US x Iran permanent peace deal by… odds?
Polymarket reports US x Iran permanent peace deal by… odds with June 15 at 100%, June 30 at 100%, July 31 at 100%, and August 31 at 100%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $478.91M volume and $109.06M open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Jun 18, 2026, 00:53 UTC.
What could move the US x Iran permanent peace deal by… prediction market odds?
Pricing implies the market treats a qualifying US-Iran permanent peace deal as effectively already satisfied or procedurally inevitable across all listed dates. Because every timeframe is shown at $1, interpretation depends less on diplomacy forecasts and more on whether Polymarket has already deemed the condition met or is near resolution. Catalysts to watch include Polymarket resolution update, Resolution notice or official deal text, and Official treaty or denial.
How does the US x Iran permanent peace deal by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
