XRP Price Analysis: Post-42% Crash, Can Bulls Hold the Recovery Level?

XRP has had one of the toughest weeks ever, down 42% in a market-wide selloff triggered by global economic chaos. The collapse followed the US government’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and sent both traditional and digital markets reeling. Investors bailed out of risk assets, and all major cryptos, including XRP, tanked.

The token hit $1.77 before finding some stability. Volatility is nothing new to crypto, but the scale and speed of this drop show how closely digital assets are tied to macro and geopolitical events.

Geopolitics Shake Up the Crypto Market

This week’s crash reminded investors that cryptocurrencies are not immune to macro headwinds. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all fell in tandem with global equity indices, reinforcing their growing correlation with traditional markets.

• Bitcoin dropped nearly 9%, falling toward the $110,000 mark.
• Ethereum tumbled over 12%, slipping below $3,800.
• BNB and Solana both recorded double-digit losses, reflecting widespread risk aversion.

For XRP, the tariff news triggered a massive liquidation wave, with short-term traders rushing to cut exposure. The result was a fast-moving sell-off that broke several support levels and negated weeks of consolidation. As panic selling subsides, long-term investors are seeking new entry zones, but uncertainty remains high.

XRP Triangle Breakdown Signals Deeper Correction

XRP price prediction remains bearish as XRP’s structure has weakened after breaking below a symmetrical triangle that had guided price action since mid-July. The breakdown followed multiple failed retests of the upper boundary near $2.80–$2.85, where sellers stepped in aggressively.

The bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart confirmed a decisive momentum reversal. XRP now trades below the 100-day SMA ($2.63), a signal of short-term weakness. Meanwhile, the RSI at 35 indicates oversold conditions, but no clear bullish divergence has emerged yet, suggesting further downside risk.

Recent candlesticks show long lower wicks, reflecting buying interest near the $2.30-$2.32 range. This zone marks a key battle line between bulls and bears. A rebound from this level could lift XRP back toward the $2.70 resistance, which coincides with the lower boundary of the broken triangle and the 100-day SMA.

If this relief rally fails, downside targets lie near $2.02, a critical Fibonacci support, and $1.77, where historical accumulation zones could attract buyers again.

Trade Setup and Market Outlook

For traders, the technical setup is cautious but rewarding. A sustained bounce above $2.30 could be a short-term long entry with targets $2.70-$3.18 if volume confirms. If it fails to hold $2.30 could open up $2.02 and keep the bearish bias.

XRP’s chart is at a crossroads:
📉 Bearish engulfing candle confirmed momentum loss.
📊 RSI = 35 (oversold zone).
⚙️ Key supports: $2.30 → $2.02 → $1.77.
A bounce from here could mark the start of the next recovery phase. #XRP pic.twitter.com/1mzHWX9wk9

— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) October 11, 2025

Despite near-term turbulence, XRP’s broader uptrend remains structurally intact. The current correction may serve as a market reset before new institutional inflows and ecosystem developments reestablish confidence heading into late October.

If macro conditions stabilize and investor sentiment improves, XRP could reclaim lost ground, potentially retesting the $3.18-$3.60 zone by year-end.

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