Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is voicing concern about the current direction of prediction markets, arguing that the sector is drifting away from useful economic tools and toward short-term betting.

In a recent post on X, Buterin said many platforms are “over-converging” into products centered on rapid price wagers and speculative trading rather than practical applications.

He warned that the trend risks turning prediction markets into little more than gambling venues instead of systems that support real-world economic planning.

Buterin Says Prediction Markets Should Shift From Betting To Hedging

Rather than focusing on event betting or short-term financial outcomes, Buterin suggested prediction markets should evolve into hedging mechanisms designed to protect consumers and businesses from price volatility.

He outlined a model in which onchain prediction markets work alongside large language models (LLMs).

The system would track price indices across categories of goods and services, such as food, housing or transportation, separated by region.

A user’s personal AI assistant would analyze spending patterns and construct a tailored portfolio of prediction-market positions representing expected future expenses.

The idea is to help households and companies offset rising costs. Individuals could hold traditional investments for growth while maintaining a basket of prediction-market shares tied to living expenses, creating a buffer against inflation in fiat currencies.

Supporters of prediction markets say the technology already has broader value beyond speculation.

These platforms crowdsource expectations about events, financial trends and economic conditions, producing signals some researchers argue can rival polling data.

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 14, 2026

Markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have gained traction by offering alternative views on political and economic developments.

Advocates say they provide a decentralized source of intelligence that is harder to shape by centralized narratives.

State Opposition to Prediction Markets Builds Over Consumer Concerns

State opposition to prediction markets has been building for months.

In 2025, the SWC urged the CFTC to prohibit sports event contracts, arguing that such products bypass state safeguards such as age verification, responsible gaming rules and anti-money laundering requirements.

As reported, a new legislation to limit the interactions between government officials and the prediction markets is being supported by more than 30 Democrats in the US House of Representatives, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The lure behind new restrictions is a controversial Polymarket bet, which started as a bet of $32,000 but eventually became more than $400,000 shortly before the unexpected detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The bill proposed by the New York Representative Ritchie Torres is the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.

Last month, Kalshi opened a new office in Washington, D.C., as it ramps up efforts to shape federal and state policy amid growing scrutiny of its products across the United States.

The company also hired veteran political strategist John Bivona as its first head of federal government relations.