[LIVE] Bitcoin Price Watch: Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 236K vs 220K Expected — Does Weak Labor Support Rate Cuts?

Initial jobless claims surged to 236,000 vs 220,000 expected, a significant jump from last week’s 191,000 reading that was the lowest since September 2022.

Bitcoin dropped from $92,000 to $90,000 yesterday, and it is holding there as traders digest whether the 45,000-person increase validates concerns about a softening labor market or simply represents holiday volatility normalizing.

The timing couldn’t be more critical as yesterday’s Fed meeting saw Chair Powell deliver a hawkish 25-basis-point cut and slash 2025 rate-cut projections from four to two, citing resilient employment as justification.

Today’s weaker claims data directly challenge that narrative and could revive arguments that the Fed is making a policy error by prematurely slowing the easing cycle.

The timing is critical as traders also digest today’s OPEC Monthly Report and the U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction, both of which carry implications for inflation expectations and Fed policy.

OPEC’s demand outlook could signal whether energy prices will pressure inflation higher in 2025, while the 30-year auction will reveal how bond markets are pricing long-term Fed policy after yesterday’s hawkish shift.

Currently, Bitcoin’s technical setup has deteriorated after the Fed decision, with support now critical at $88,000-$90,000 and resistance at $92,000. The total crypto market cap sits at $3.23 trillion as traders reassess whether today’s 236K jobless claims print marks the start of labor-market deterioration that forces the Fed back to dovish policy.

The question is whether one week’s data reverses Powell’s hawkish stance—markets now face a dilemma in which weak employment could be bullish (forcing rate cuts) or bearish (signaling a recession).

With the January 28-29 FOMC meeting now uncertain to deliver a rate cut, today’s labor market weakness provides ammunition for dovish Fed officials who warned against pausing the easing too soon.

Jobless Claims Spike: Labor Market Shows First Cracks