Bitcoin Price Prediction: Same Signal That Preceded Big Crash Just Flashed Again – Should You Panic?

Bitcoin is trading with a bearish bias, falling around 1.6% over the past 24 hours. At the moment, it’s around $121,639 as traders grew cautious following a key sell signal flashing on the daily chart. Overall, the trading sentiment appears to have turned bearish, as the TD Sequential indicator, historically reliable for timing corrections, has reappeared, raising fears of a potential short-term pullback.

Market analyst Ali (@ali_charts) noted that similar signals earlier this year led to notable declines:

• A 7% dip in mid-July following the first alert.
• A 13% drop in mid-August after the next trigger.

This pattern suggests a possible cooling phase ahead, though many traders see it as part of a larger, still-intact uptrend. Bitcoin’s overall structure remains supported by institutional inflows and strong technical foundations, with critical support zones near $122,000 and $116,700 holding firm so far.

Market Psychology Mirrors Past Cycles

According to trader @KillaXBT, the emotional setup in today’s market is nearly identical to the 2022–2023 bear market bottom — only reversed. Back then, investors were afraid to buy near $16,000–$20,000. Now, that same collective psychology has flipped, as traders hesitate to sell during what could be the cycle’s euphoric peak.

“The market’s only real edge is human emotion,” Killa wrote. “It doesn’t need to outsmart anyone — it just waits for you to outsmart yourself.”

Unpopular Opinion $BTC

The same collective psychology that drove behavior at bear market lows is playing out again, only in reverse.

BTC now sits in the same emotional and structural position it did around 16 to 20K, just flipped upside down.

Selling here carries the same…

— Killa (@KillaXBT) October 9, 2025

That sentiment captures the paradox many investors face: fear of missing out on further gains versus fear of holding through another correction. Yet historically, such hesitation often precedes periods of volatility rather than prolonged collapse.

Bitcoin Technical Setup: Triangle Nearing Resolution

Bitcoin’s price action remains within a narrow band between $119,500 and $122,500, forming a short-term symmetrical triangle. The 4-hour chart highlights the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $119,520 as a critical support zone, with the 50-period SMA at $122,365 providing overhead resistance.

Momentum indicators suggest indecision. The RSI sits near 47, reflecting neutral sentiment, while the MACD histogram shows contracting bearish pressure.

If Bitcoin rebounds from $119,500, it could reclaim $124,000 and retest $126,200, a breakout that would likely complete the Bearish Butterfly pattern highlighted in previous forecasts.

However, if the $119,500–$117,400 range fails to hold, the following key levels lie at $115,400 and $112,000. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as Bitcoin trades above $115,000, supported by the rising trendline from September’s lows.

BTC is in a strong ascending channel, with support at $122K and $116.7K. A breakout above $126.2K could drive a move toward $130K, completing a bearish butterfly pattern. Failure to hold $122K may trigger a pullback to $118.5K, but the broader uptrend still targets $135K into Q4. pic.twitter.com/gSlamkT4Wm

— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) October 9, 2025

For now, Bitcoin’s consolidation looks more like preparation than exhaustion. A decisive move above $126,200 could ignite another rally toward $130,000, while institutional liquidity and ETF inflows continue to support long-term optimism heading into Q4 2025.

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