Bitcoin Price Prediction: Government Shutdown Could Freeze ETF Progress – Is BTC About to Crash?

The latest US government shutdown is rippling through financial markets, and Bitcoin is no exception. Funding for federal operations was cut off after lawmakers failed to agree on a spending bill, raising the risk of prolonged political paralysis.

Nearly 750,000 federal workers are expected to go on unpaid leave, while essential services continue without pay.

Historically, shutdowns dent economic output, with the 2018-2019 standoff costing an estimated $11 billion. This time, however, the stakes are higher.

Not only could federal data releases—such as the monthly jobs report- be delayed, but the disruption could also stall progress on crypto-related regulatory approvals, including pending Bitcoin ETF applications.

US Government officially shut down at 12:01 AM ET today after Congress failed to pass a funding bill, impacting millions of federal employees and critical services. [Sources: ABC News, Reuters, BBC] pic.twitter.com/9A606YW3jl

— Global Press Free (@GlobalPressFree) October 1, 2025

For investors, that uncertainty means a volatile mix: safe-haven demand for Bitcoin on one hand, and doubts about institutional inflows on the other.

ETF Flows and Institutional Demand

ETF demand has been the key driver of Bitcoin’s rally in 2025. September alone brought $3.53 billion in net inflows to spot ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Ark Invest’s ARKB. This steady accumulation has lifted Bitcoin’s market cap back above $1 trillion, a gain of more than $200 billion this year.

But political gridlock could complicate the narrative. If the shutdown delays SEC operations, ETF progress may temporarily stall, raising doubts about short-term institutional inflows. Traders remain focused on whether this political turbulence will weaken Bitcoin’s structural bullish momentum.

Key ETF stats:

• BlackRock IBIT: $199.4M inflow (Sept 30)
• Ark Invest ARKB: $105.7M inflow
• Fidelity FBTC: $54.7M inflow
• Total September inflows: $3.53B

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook

Technically, Bitcoin has staged a decisive breakout, climbing above $116,000 and clearing a descending trendline that capped September’s rallies.

A bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart confirmed strong buyer conviction, supported by a golden cross as the 50-EMA ($111,745) moved above the 100-EMA ($113,256).

BTC now faces resistance at $117,975, with higher levels at $119,700 and $121,100. A close above these zones could pave the way toward August’s high near $124,000.

However, the RSI at 75 signals overbought conditions, hinting at the risk of consolidation or a corrective pullback. On the downside, support lies at $115,166, then deeper at $112,544 and $110,869.

🚀 Bitcoin breaks $116K, clearing key trendline. Resistance: $117,975–$121,100. RSI at 75 warns of pullback; support near $115K. Smart play? Wait for dip buys. #BTC pic.twitter.com/xQwmVpZCnV

— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) October 1, 2025

For traders, the most balanced strategy may be waiting for a pullback toward the $115,000 zone before targeting the next resistance cluster. Aggressive entries at current levels carry higher risk given stretched momentum indicators.

Looking ahead, if institutional inflows continue despite political headwinds, Bitcoin could be setting the stage for a retest of record highs. The longer the US shutdown drags on, however, the more fragile that path may become.

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