Bitcoin Price Prediction: Fed Cuts Rates For the First Time Since December – Trigger for a $500,000 BTC Supercycle? 

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Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

Part of the Team Since

Sep 2022

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Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis...

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Last updated: 

September 18, 2025

Bitcoin is sitting at $117,000 after the Fed’s first rate cut since December and traders are saying this could be the supercycle trigger. The central bank cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% citing weaker job growth and a softer economic outlook.

The jobs data showed 911,000 fewer jobs created over the past year than previously reported and inflation is at 2.9% above the Fed’s 2% target. Despite these risks President Trump is pushing for deeper cuts and is putting pressure on the bank.

New Fed projections show two more cuts this year and that’s a dovish signal that means more liquidity in the global markets.

Gold trades below $3,700 and Bitcoin is consolidating at $117,200. But if momentum builds easier monetary policy could mean more inflows into digital assets.

Market Response and Policy Outlook

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that rate moves remain data-dependent, signaling no fixed path for further cuts. While that cautious tone prevented sharper dollar losses, expectations for looser conditions continue to pressure the greenback.

Updated Fed projections flagged higher unemployment and sticky inflation ahead, fueling speculation of a broader easing cycle. The CME’s FedWatch tool had already priced a 96% chance of Wednesday’s reduction, underscoring how widely expected the decision was.

Markets now turn to upcoming labor and inflation reports, which will help determine the pace of future moves. Traders are also closely watching Powell’s commentary for subtle hints of policy direction.

Key Market Takeaways:

• Fed cut rates 25bps, first since December
• Trump pressures central bank for deeper easing
• Inflation at 2.9%, still above target
• Gold hit record highs of around $3,700 before the Fed rate.
• Bitcoin steady near $116,000

Bitcoin Technical Outlook and Forecast

On the technical front, the BTC/USD pair is consolidating near $117,200 within a rising wedge structure on the 2-hour chart. The wedge typically signals caution, yet higher lows and sustained support above the 50-SMA at $116,000 keep momentum constructive. The 200-SMA at $113,800 further underpins the bullish structure.

Candlesticks show strong rejection wicks on dips, suggesting buyers continue to absorb supply. RSI sits at 59, cooling from recent highs but not in overbought territory. A bullish engulfing candle near $115,800 earlier this week confirmed strong demand at lower levels.

If BTC breaks above $117,600, a path toward $118,500 and $119,350 opens, with potential for $120,000 short term. A breakdown below $116,000 could invite pressure toward $114,400 and $113,200. For traders, the setup supports a cautious long bias while above key support.

Longer term, the steady pattern of higher lows keeps the door open for a rally toward $130,000 and even discussions of a potential $500,000 supercycle, should macro liquidity conditions align with growing institutional demand.

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