Bitcoin Could Dip to $77K Without Ending Its Bull Market, Says CryptoQuant CEO

Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $77,000 without jeopardizing its ongoing bull market, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

In a series of posts on X on February 19, Ki noted that Bitcoin’s recent sideways price action should not be mistaken for a market downturn.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $96,300, largely flat over the past day, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin Remains Firmly in Bull Cycle

He emphasized that despite the lack of momentum to break the $100,000 mark, BTC remains firmly in a bull cycle.

“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year,” Ki stated. “We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.”

According to Ki, a 30% correction from a potential all-time high (ATH) of $110,000—bringing Bitcoin to around $77,000—would still be consistent with historical bull market corrections.

Such a dip would keep BTC above its previous cycle peak and could establish a stronger support base for further gains.

#Bitcoin Cost Basis at $95K:

• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89K

• Binance Traders: $59K

• Mining Companies: $57K – Falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.

• Old Whales: $25K – Never breached historically. pic.twitter.com/QlfUx8bO08

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025

Ki highlighted several significant cost bases that could act as support zones.

Notably, the aggregate cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors sits around $89,000, serving as a crucial support level since November.

This threshold aligns with the average entry point for new Bitcoin whales, underscoring its importance if the market experiences a downturn.

On global exchange Binance, the average breakeven price for BTC traders is approximately $59,000.

Ki pointed out that dipping below the Bitcoin mining breakeven level of $57,000 has historically signaled the start of bear markets, citing downturns in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018.

Outlook for the Rest of 2025

Despite the potential for short-term volatility, market analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen described the current cycle as “unfinished,” noting that Bitcoin has only gained around 60% since the most recent block subsidy halving in April 2024.

Oinonen forecasts that the market could experience a seasonal “sell in May” effect followed by a period of sideways trading during the summer.

However, he anticipates elevated price levels by the fourth quarter, consistent with bullish Q4 trends observed in previous cycles—including those in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2023.

“A deeper correction could be multiple months or even a year away,” Oinonen concluded.

In another positive development, Strategy, the business intelligence and Bitcoin acquisition firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, has announced plans to raise $2 billion through 0% senior convertible notes to further expand its Bitcoin holdings.

The company stated that net proceeds from the offering will primarily fund new Bitcoin acquisitions, with a portion allocated for general working capital.

As reported, a dozen U.S. states have invested in Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, with state pension funds and treasuries collectively holding $330 million worth of its stock as of the end of 2024.

California’s State Teachers Retirement System fund holds the largest stake, with 285,785 shares valued at approximately $83 million, based on the Feb. 14 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).