Polymarket vs Truth Predict: Which Prediction Market Will Win?

There’s a big battle brewing in the booming world of prediction markets — pitting Polymarket against Donald Trump’s crypto empire.

Two significant stories have emerged this week, with the first being Polymarket’s plans to re-enter the US market by the end of November. This comes three years after the crypto-powered betting platform was forced to leave America because of a crackdown led by the Biden administration.

It’s important to stress that the market leader won’t be available nationwide at first, and may look a little bit different to what early users are accustomed to. Reports suggest that it’s primarily going to focus on sports betting — tapping into an insatiable appetite for wagers on basketball, baseball and American football.

All of this comes as Polymarket completes a pretty stunning comeback. Monthly volumes had hit a high of $2.63 billion back in November 2024, coinciding with feverish betting on the outcome of the presidential election, but slumped dramatically in the months that followed. Demand has now returned, with the platform on the brink of setting fresh records this month.

Buoyant demand has helped Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan become a self-made billionaire. In a dramatic turnaround, the 27-year-old recently rubbed shoulders with CEOs at a roundtable convened by the SEC and the CFTC. Significant investments have also helped the platform’s post-money valuation surge to a cool $9 billion.

Bring these factors together, and it’s easy to come to the conclusion that this young company is unstoppable. However, there’s a big threat on the horizon.

Hard Truths

Another headline-grabbing announcement has come from Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform, which is among several of the president’s businesses that have started dabbling in digital assets.

A partnership with Crypto.com means that the social network’s parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is now going to roll out “Truth Predict.”

This concept will be nothing new to those who are already familiar with how prediction markets work, with users given the opportunity “to react instantly to developments in major current events.” Trump Media’s chairman Devin Nunes has hailed the new product as a bullish development, declaring:

“For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets — with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight.”

But you could argue that all of this is a little bit too cosy. Earlier this year, Donald Trump Jr. was named as an adviser to Polymarket, as well as its rival Kalshi. The arrival of Truth Predict could lead to uncomfortable questions surrounding conflict of interest — and that’s before you get into the issues surrounding a sitting president helping to deregulate an industry he’s actively involved in.

Polymarket v Truth Predict: Who Will Win?

Incomplete figures for October show Polymarket has attracted 446,000 monthly active traders — putting the platform on the brink of eclipsing the record of 462,600 set in January 2024. A return to the US could boost this figure further.

By contrast, it’s pretty difficult to verify how many people actually use Truth Social. Estimates from January 2025 suggest the social network had about 6.3 million active users. However, it’s fair to say that many will have been visiting for Donald Trump’s latest ramblings on world events — and only a small percentage would actually be interested in betting on yes/no events.

That brings us to the issue of brand recognition. Polymarket has the upper hand here because it’s known for its prediction markets. This burgeoning industry is uncharted territory for Trump Media, but it will benefit from a collaboration with Crypto.com to get Truth Predict off the ground.

From an investment perspective, Polymarket wins thanks to a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. A huge cash injection from a legacy financial player is bullish, not to mention excitement over an upcoming token and airdrop.

Last but not least, we need to address the elephant in the room: Trump’s past crypto projects haven’t exactly gone well. From NFT collections depicting the president as a superhero, to a meme coin bearing his name, recent ventures have often plunged in value months after launch. Users might be wary of Truth Predict as a result — and reluctant to get their fingers burned.