Prediction market traders on Polymarket are tipping 21% odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, despite many analysts seeing 2026 as a belated bull year for Bitcoin.
According to the current market, “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, a price point below its all-time high.
The odds fall further at $130,000, with just a 35% probability, while $140,000 has a 28% chance and $150,000 has a 21% chance.
The safest bet traders are currently willing to place on overall is a mere $100,000 at 80%.
While it’s not entirely clear what has made users so cautious, the ending of the four-year cycle may have something to do with it, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.
The four-year cycle was a market pattern surrounding halving events that had played out several times over Bitcoin’s history, enabling chartists to plot future moves. With this coming to an end, it opens the door for new trading patterns to emerge.
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Despite the bearish odds, analysts have been tipping a bullish year for Bitcoin.
President Donald Trump is set to announce a new US Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, which may be a boon for crypto as many expect interest rates to be slashed.
Such anticipation has in part already fueled a surge in the price of precious metals such as gold and silver, with both hitting new all-time highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite digital commodities in crypto remaining flat.
Meanwhile, major crypto bills — the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act — are expected to bring more regulatory clarity, which may open the door for more institutional adoption.
Many analysts from firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy and Bernstein are predicting the price of BTC to hit $150,000 in 2026, while others on the more optimistic side, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, are anticipating a price of around $200,000 to $250,000.
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