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Bitcoin Supply Inactive for a Year Slides to 18-Month Low of 65.8%
The decline likely represents profit-taking by investors who held coins for one year and over and marks a shift from the holding strategy seen through 2023.
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- The percentage of bitcoin's circulating supply last active at least a year ago has declined from 70% to 65.8% in three months.
- The decline probably indicates profit-taking by some investors in a rising market.
The percentage of bitcoin's circulating supply that last moved on-chain at least a year ago has declined to the lowest since October 2022, according to data tracked by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
On Monday, 12.95 million BTC, equating to 65.84% of the circulating supply of 19.67 million BTC, remained unchanged for over a year, the lowest percentage since October 2022. The metric peaked above 70% with the debut of nearly a dozen spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. in mid-January and has been falling ever since.
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Since late December, the percentage of the circulating supply that has not moved in at least two years has declined to 54.% from 57.4%.
The decline likely represents profit-taking by investors who held coins for one year and over and marks a shift from the holding strategy seen through 2023.
The urge to sell likely stems from bitcoin's massive 148% price surge since April last year and the 50% rally since the ETFs began trading in the U.S. At press time, bitcoin changed hands at $70,400. However, it's difficult to ascertain the exact percentage of bitcoin that left the inactive supply has been liquidated in the market.
According to the data tracking website MacroMicro, a decrease in the percentage of inactive BTC is a "leading indicator for the end of the bull run."
Past data, however, show that bull markets tend to peak as the percentage of inactive supply bottoms out and begin rising.
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‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches spike in the U.S., but the bottom signal is mixed
Google Trends data shows the term hit a record high in the U.S. this month, though global interest has fallen since peaking in August.
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- U.S. searches for “bitcoin zero” on Google hit a record high in February as BTC slid toward $60,000 after hitting a peak in October.
- In the rest of the world, searches for the term peaked in August, suggesting fear is concentrated in the U.S. rather than worldwide.
- Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local bottoms.
- Because Google Trends measures relative interest on a 0-to-100 scale amid a much larger bitcoin user base today, the latest U.S. spike signals elevated retail anxiety, but does not reliably guarantee a clean contrarian reversal.
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