Polymarket Bettors Miss Out on $270K Due to Pavel Durov's Early Release

• Bettors on Polymarket were largely wrong about how long Telegram CEO Pavel Durov would be detained by French authorities.
• Durov was released on bail on Aug. 28, earlier than many bettors anticipated.

French authorities are no longer holding Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, and as of Aug. 28 he was out on bail. The decision took bettors on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, by surprise, costing them a total of $270,000 in missed winnings.

Durov was formally indicted Wednesday and released on bail after he posted a 5 million-euro ($5.6 million) bond while agreeing to report to police twice weekly and to stay in the country.

The quick release contrasted with bettors' overall sentiment that an extended detention was more probable. At one point, the chance of an August release was pegged in the mid-30%s while a release before October was priced 75%-90%. The August relase probabilty climbed to 50% in the hours before French authorities announced he was out on bail.

Each bet comprises a "Yes" and a "No" side. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades at par with the U.S. dollar, if the prediction comes true, and zero if not.

In total, bettors missed out on $270,000 by betting "No" on an August release, and "No" for before October. Likely, bettors had their money on French authorities keeping Durov for as long as possible.

As a man of considerable wealth and multiple nationalities – including the United Arab Emirates, which does not extradite its citizens – Durov would have the means to flee the country, which is why bettors thought France would do all it could to keep him in detention.

On the other side of the trade, user Champ correctly forecast Durov would be released in August and before October, and was the largest holder of the "Yes" side of both contracts.

In total, Champ won $26,138 between the two contracts, meaning they took home $56,638 after the winnings were added to the value of the original bet.

Another contract gives Durov a 6% chance of fleeing France by mid-month, meaning bettors expect him to comply with the terms of his bail.

Despite Durov's legal challenges being the talk of the crypto community this week, it won't be center stage when Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a live townhall in Wisconsin later Thursday.

Bettors are only giving a 14% chance he'll mention Durov's name during the event, compared to a 92% chance he'll say "MAGA" and an 84% chance he'll use the term "Border Czar."

However, Trump can often be unpredictable.

In a recent interview with Elon Musk bettors wagered over $250,000 on the former president saying "Tesla," causing the bet to peak at 79%. Instead, he refered to the carmaker only as "your cars."