Why bitcoin ETFs look like they’re falling short, even as their role grows: Asia Morning Briefing

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

With just two weeks left in the year and many desks in Hong Kong operating with a skeleton staff after Friday’s Asia session as the Christmas holidays begin, crypto markets are shifting from momentum to scorekeeping. One of the starkest year-end verdicts is coming from Polymarket, where traders now assign only a 2% chance that bitcoin ETFs will beat last year’s inflow record in 2025.

The bet rests on a simple arithmetic problem. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $33.6B in net inflows during 2024. This year’s tally as of December 15 U.S. time stands closer to $22.5B, according to SoSoValue, leaving a gap of roughly $11B with only days of meaningful trading left.

Yet the last week has shown ETF inflows returning even as prices softened and altcoins lagged, suggesting that while the $33.6B target may be out of reach, the structural role of ETFs in absorbing risk is still strengthening as the year closes.

Glassnode data shows that U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows flipping back into positive territory even as prices pulled back from $94,000, where it was trading yesterday, and spot market conditions weakened, with net inflows rebounding to about $290 million on the week after prior outflows.

At the same time, Glassnode writes that ETF trading volumes declined, suggesting less speculative churn and more allocation-driven positioning. That pattern helps explain why bitcoin has held up better than the CoinDesk 20, a broad index, with ETFs increasingly acting as a stabilizing channel when risk comes from higher-beta assets rather than as a vehicle purely for chasing upside.

The $11B gap to last year’s $33.6B record reflects how the ETF story has shifted, not that it has stalled.

Unlike 2024’s launch year, which was driven by pent-up demand and one-time allocations, 2025 has been shaped by rotation, fee migration, and volatility-driven rebalancing.

The arithmetic may already be settled, but beating a benchmark before the end of the year isn't as important. It's about the use case: ETFs no longer amplify crypto prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.

Instead, they are increasingly acting as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during pullbacks rather than amplifying price swings. That's the sign of mature market infrastructure.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has spent the past week consolidating after failing near $94,000, drifting back toward the $87,000 to $88,000 range while holding up better than the broader crypto market.

ETH: Ether has underperformed over the past week, sliding toward the $2,950 to $3,000 range as selling pressure in higher beta assets intensified and rotation favored bitcoin.

Gold: Gold climbed above $4,300 after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly fell into contraction in December, boosting safe-haven demand as U.S. manufacturing volatility resurfaced.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s decline as investors rotated out of the U.S. AI trade, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.14% and the Topix slipping 1.05%.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Senate punts crypto market structure bill to next year (CoinDesk)
• Bitcoin sees one-year low in active addresses, raising fresh concerns over blockspace demand (The Block)